May 7th, 2026 – Air cargo markets are beginning to stabilize after the disruption triggered by the war in the Middle East, with capacity returning and pricing dynamics increasingly shaped by seasonal demand and early May holidays rather than purely by conflict-related shocks.
A clear example of seasonal influence is the surge in flower exports from Colombia and Ecuador into the U.S. and Canada ahead of Mother’s Day on May 10th. In the final week of April, tonnage from Central and South America jumped 19% compared with the prior week, according to WorldACD Market Data. In Asia-Pacific, volumes also edged up, rising 3% week over week as shippers moved goods in advance of China’s May 1st Labor Day holiday period.
The early signs suggest that the most acute phase of disruption may have passed. Analysts note that the initial spike in air freight rates was largely driven by constrained supply. As capacity gradually returns to the market, rates are expected to decline, though not at the same pace at which they initially climbed. Even so, uncertainty remains about how demand will evolve later in the year, especially after prolonged inflationary pressure, elevated fuel costs, and broader economic headwinds. The outlook for the second half of 2026 remains cautious.
Despite signs of stabilization, the conflict continues to influence pricing. Global air cargo spot rates rose sharply in April, climbing 30% year over year to $3.34 per kilogram—the highest level since October 2022. Significant increases were recorded across multiple trade lanes. Rates out of the Middle East and South Asia were up 65% year over year to $4.65/kg, while North America saw a 60% increase to $2.65/kg. Asia-Pacific rates rose 41% to $5.11/kg, Africa increased 40% to $2.86/kg, and Europe climbed 32% to $2.87/kg. On the China–Europe corridor specifically, rates reached $5.30/kg in early May, up 4.5% week over week and 52% higher than a year earlier.
Although the pace of rate increases has slowed compared to the immediate aftermath of the conflict’s escalation in late February, several risk factors remain. Continued instability, including renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside rising fuel costs, suggests that elevated air cargo rates could persist. Much will depend on jet fuel availability and pricing in the coming weeks.
Fuel costs have become a central concern for the industry. Jet fuel prices surged through March and April, reaching their highest levels in more than two decades. Constraints on petroleum flows through key shipping lanes and refinery limitations have tightened global supply. At the same time, the margin between crude oil and refined jet fuel has widened beyond levels seen during the pandemic, creating a cost burden that carriers are unable to absorb easily.
Even with these challenges, the return of capacity is offering some relief. Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-disruption levels, and while jet fuel shortages are spreading, they have not yet significantly impacted long-haul intercontinental routes. If these conditions remain stable, spot rates are expected to ease, providing some predictability for shippers.
This stabilization is particularly important for companies that had delayed contract negotiations for the third and fourth quarters while waiting for clearer market conditions. A more balanced environment could allow those discussions to move forward with greater confidence.
There is also cautious optimism about underlying demand. Trade and economic forecasts from major global institutions continue to point toward growth in 2026. At the same time, air cargo networks are proving critical in maintaining supply chain flexibility, helping businesses adapt to ongoing geopolitical tensions, tariff pressures, and operational disruptions.
