January 8th, 2026 – The annual pre–Lunar New Year surge is unfolding on the Asia–North Europe ocean trade, prompting debate over whether current volumes signal early frontloading or simply reflect normal seasonal demand. Some market participants believe shippers are moving cargo earlier than usual, while others argue that January volumes remain largely in line with historical patterns.
What is not in question is the scale of capacity being deployed. Ocean carriers have added significant vessel capacity to the trade lane this month, with very few sailings blanked, as exporters rush to ship goods before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Horse, begins on February 17th.
Capacity on the Asia–North Europe route has reached unprecedented levels. Market data shows an all-time high in weekly capacity, with no blank sailings recorded. In total, a record 1.15 million TEUs are scheduled for deployment on the trade lane in January, while blank sailings have removed only about 25,000 TEUs. Capacity is expected to moderate in February, with planned deployment easing to just over 1 million TEUs.
Analysts describe demand as seasonally strong, noting that any growth beyond typical levels may be influenced by wider uncertainty in global trade. Weekly capacity has climbed to more than 421,000 TEUs, representing a 49% net increase compared with the pre-pandemic 2015–2019 baseline.
Some analysts view this surge in capacity as evidence of frontloading. With Asia–Europe transit times still extended, shippers appear to be pushing higher volumes into the network earlier than usual to ensure European inventories are secured before capacity is withdrawn during the Lunar New Year factory shutdowns.
Others, particularly carriers, see little deviation from established seasonal trends. From their perspective, the eastbound Asia–Europe peak season began in December and is now intensifying into January, with bookings expected to soften toward the end of the month as production slows for the holiday period.
Forwarders note that supply chain strategies are also evolving. While many European importers continue to rely on just-in-time inventory models, two years of prolonged transit times have prompted adjustments in planning. As a result, peak shipping periods are becoming more stretched rather than sharply concentrated.
Rising spot freight rates are reinforcing the strength of pre–Lunar New Year demand. Major indexes show steep increases since early October, with Asia–North Europe spot rates now exceeding $2,700 per FEU—more than double early October levels. Container volumes on the trade lane were up nearly 8% over the first 10 months of 2025, supported in part by shifting U.S. tariff policies that encouraged Chinese exporters to redirect cargo toward European markets.
Together, record capacity, firm demand, and higher rates highlight the intensity of the current shipping season, even as the market continues to debate how much of the surge reflects precautionary frontloading versus familiar seasonal dynamics.
