September 11th, 2025 – Asia-Europe ocean carriers are struggling to align rapidly increasing capacity with weakening demand, as a wave of new vessels enters service and persistent port congestion continues to drag schedule reliability to historic lows.
Although many carriers report fully loaded ships, the early frontloading that brought this year’s peak season forward is now expected to suppress demand through the final quarter. In the run-up to China’s National Day Golden Week holiday beginning October 1st, blank sailing announcements are starting to climb. Industry updates highlight that the traditional September surge has already passed, meaning shipping volumes from September through December are likely to fall below historical norms.
The softening demand comes as more than 1 million TEUs of capacity are scheduled for delivery before year’s end, with nearly 70% of those newbuilds exceeding 15,200 TEUs. Such ultra-large container vessels have limited deployment options outside the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades, where overcapacity is already weighing heavily on rates. Analysts warn this imbalance is setting the stage for continued structural weakness in pricing.
Carriers are attempting to manage supply through blank sailings, but activity is trailing last year’s levels. MSC and Maersk have announced a combined 10 blanked sailings for late September and early October, bringing the September total to 13 and October to 16. This compares with 25 cancellations in September and 39 in October a year earlier. The lighter blanking program has added pressure to the spot market, with Asia-North Europe rates tumbling to $1,700 per FEU — down nearly 50% since mid-July and more than 60% year over year. Asia-Mediterranean rates are following a similar downward trajectory, falling to $2,100 per FEU.
With insufficient demand to support rate increases, carriers are prioritizing market share, which is allowing shippers to benefit from both lower prices and increased flexibility. The traditional price gap between North Europe and Mediterranean ports has all but disappeared, giving supply chain managers more latitude in choosing discharge points based on strategy rather than cost.
At the same time, schedule reliability has collapsed. On-time performance in August fell to just 17% for Asia-North Europe and 16% for Asia-Mediterranean services, underscoring the combined impact of vessel oversupply and ongoing port congestion on an already unstable trade lane.
