October 1st, 2026 – A series of typhoons and mounting port congestion across Asia have pushed global ocean schedule reliability to multiyear lows, with analysts warning that disruptions could persist through the end of 2026 and potentially into the pre-Chinese New Year shipping period.
Global ocean schedule reliability fell 12.7 percentage points over two months to 49.9% in August, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. At the same time, congestion tied up approximately 8.5% of global vessel capacity, limiting available capacity across an already strained shipping network.
Shanghai and Ningbo were among the ports most heavily affected by summer typhoons, with some services experiencing delays of up to nine days in August. Conditions have begun to improve, with arrival-to-berth times in Shanghai falling to just under four days by mid-September, but a full recovery could take several months.
Congestion in South China has also reached record levels, and additional severe weather could extend recovery timelines by another one to two weeks. While Asia’s typhoon season typically begins winding down in October, the accumulated vessel delays and port backlogs could continue affecting schedules well after weather conditions improve.
Sea-Intelligence cautions that Asian port congestion may only be partially resolved before the seasonal increase in cargo ahead of Chinese New Year in early February.
Despite the disruption, current conditions remain less severe than those experienced during the pandemic. At that time, congestion absorbed approximately 13.8% of global fleet capacity, while schedule reliability fell to around 30%.
Pressure on global shipping networks has been building throughout the summer as earlier peak seasons increased cargo volumes from Asia to North America, Latin America and Europe. Infrastructure constraints and imbalanced trade flows have further complicated vessel and container movements, while low water levels on Europe’s Rhine River have reduced inland shipping capacity.
Panama Canal Conditions Improve
There is some positive news from the Panama Canal, where wetter-than-expected conditions are allowing the Panama Canal Authority to increase capacity.
Beginning October 15th, the canal will increase daily Neopanamax reservation slots from nine to 10, bringing total daily transits across the Panamax and Neopanamax locks to 33 vessels.
The maximum allowable draft at the Neopanamax locks has also been increased from 48 feet to 49 feet, effective immediately. Each additional foot of draft can allow a Neopanamax vessel to carry approximately 300 additional containers, helping carriers move more cargo through the canal.
For shippers, the continued congestion in Asia means longer transit times, schedule changes and potential capacity constraints remain possible through the fourth quarter, particularly on services originating from major Chinese ports.
