November 6th, 2025 – A general rate increase (GRI) of roughly $800 per FEU, implemented by ocean carriers over the weekend on the Asia–U.S. West Coast trade, is already losing ground due to persistently weak demand. Industry sources report that vessel load factors on this route remain low, indicating that the market lacks the strength to sustain higher pricing.
The GRI initially showed promise, coming just days after the United States and China reached a trade deal that eased some tariffs and paused reciprocal port fees for a year. In the immediate aftermath, retailers sought to move cargo into the U.S. quickly, uncertain about how long the trade truce would last. This short-term rush provided a brief boost to trans-Pacific rates and supported the new GRI, particularly on the West Coast where transit times are shortest.
Following the rate hike, West Coast spot rates climbed to approximately $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU, up from about $2,040 per FEU the previous week, according to data from Platts, part of S&P Global. However, the optimism was fleeting. By Tuesday, the market had already begun to surrender much of the GRI’s gains, signaling that the underlying fundamentals remained weak.
The Asia–U.S. East Coast trade saw even more volatility. Carriers attempted to impose a $1,000 per FEU GRI over the weekend, but the effort quickly collapsed. By Monday, East Coast spot rates had fallen back to around $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU — matching West Coast levels, an unusual instance of parity between the two trades.
One key reason for the soft market is that most retailers have already brought in their holiday merchandise for the Black Friday sales period, beginning the day after Thanksgiving in the United States. With seasonal inventory already stocked, import demand during the final two months of the year is typically subdued, and 2025 appears to be no exception.
Supporting this view, data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet showed that bookings for shipments from China to the U.S. dropped about 16% in October compared with September. There was, however, a modest rebound in the second half of October, with bookings rising more than 15% compared with the first half of the month.
The broader outlook for the eastbound trans-Pacific remains weak through the end of the year. Nonetheless, carriers are expected to continue testing the market with additional GRIs, depending on their willingness to enforce them despite soft demand conditions.
