July 3rd, 2025 – Ocean carriers are maintaining elevated levels of trans-Atlantic capacity in anticipation of the July 9th expiration of the 90-day tariff pause initiated under the Trump Administration. The temporary halt on so-called “reciprocal” tariffs was intended to allow room for trade negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union.
As the deadline approaches without a clear resolution, carriers are positioning themselves to respond quickly once more clarity emerges on tariff measures – especially the anticipated 10% blanket tariffs and possible additional duties on automobiles, steel, and aluminum. There’s also speculation that the pause could be extended as negotiations continue.
Despite softening freight rates and subdued demand, data indicates carriers are continuing to deploy vessels on the trade lane. July capacity on the westbound trans-Atlantic lane is set to hit 344,811 TEUs – the highest in a year – before dipping slightly to 327,226 TEUs in August. Only 24,840 TEUs are being blanked (cancelled) in July, with no blank sailings announced for August thus far.
This strategic capacity hold allows carriers to remain flexible should volumes shift following a decision on tariffs. While short-term rates dropped 21.6% in Q1, the rate of decline slowed in May and June. The North Europe–North America spot rate currently sits at $1,206 per FEU, down 37% from the start of the year. This can be attributed to a dip in demand from January through April – down 0.5% year-over-year – while weekly capacity on the lane rose from 75,000 to 89,000 TEUs.
Looking ahead, a further rate slide of $40 to $50 per FEU in early July, as carriers could push weekly capacity up to 95,000–97,000 TEUs. Meanwhile, spot rates on the North Europe–U.S. East Coast route have stabilized at $1,700 per FEU since mid-May.
Industry experts observed that some sectors may be engaging in limited frontloading but emphasized that the overall market response remains mixed due to persistent uncertainty.
Volume data reflects this cautious sentiment. U.S. imports from North Europe reached 196,580 TEUs in May, a drop from the March high of 212,730 TEUs. Imports from the Mediterranean followed a similar pattern, peaking at 170,360 TEUs in April before falling 19% to 137,710 TEUs in May.
As negotiations continue, both shippers and carriers appear to be treading carefully, balancing readiness with restraint in a still-uncertain trade environment.
Trans-Border will continue to monitor the situation and advise customers accordingly. Should you have any questions, contact us or give us a call at 518-785-6000.
