September 25th, 2025 – Ocean carriers are accelerating Golden Week blank sailings for October in a last-ditch effort to halt the rapid decline in spot rates, as weakening demand across major trade lanes threatens to push prices toward loss-making territory.
After initially holding back on capacity cuts, carriers have begun withdrawing additional sailings ahead of the October 1st start of China’s eight-day National Day holiday. For the four-week period beginning September 29th, global blank sailings are now broadly in line with historical averages. Capacity reductions will include 13.6% on Asia–North America West Coast services, 14.4% on Asia–North America East Coast, 17% on Asia–North Europe, and 16.7% on Asia–Mediterranean, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis.
The sharp increase in canceled sailings was expected after the steep rate drop on the trans-Pacific last week. Asia–US West Coast rates fell 20% to $1,400 per FEU, while Asia–U.S. East Coast prices slid 9% to $2,500 per FEU as of September 22nd, data from Platts shows. On Asia–North Europe, rates declined 8% to $1,400 per FEU, nearing levels not seen since before the Red Sea crisis began nearly two years ago. Asia–Mediterranean lanes fell 6% to $1,800 per FEU.
Spot prices are eroding across all market indexes as weak demand collides with mounting capacity. Analysts at Xeneta warn that carriers are fast approaching breakeven levels, sitting only 5% to 10% above the thresholds where they last slipped into losses. While rates remain above the lows of October 2023, they are likely to continue sliding through the end of the year before a seasonal pre–Chinese New Year demand surge offers carriers a chance to push prices upward again.
The outlook for the fourth quarter remains grim. HSBC expects a demand shock from the U.S. to weigh heavily on volumes into early next year, absent any congestion-related disruption that could provide temporary support. J.P. Morgan analysts echoed this view, pointing to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index’s sharp fall as a signal that many carriers are already operating below profitable levels. With operating costs significantly higher than in 2019, breakeven thresholds have risen across the industry, leaving little room to maneuver. J.P. Morgan added that even ongoing Red Sea diversions, once thought to bolster pricing power, are failing to offset the drag from persistent oversupply.
Meanwhile, the container shipping order book continues to swell. Global orders now represent 30% of the in-service fleet, totaling 9.7 million TEUs, with more than 1 million TEUs scheduled for delivery before year-end. Scrapping activity has been negligible in 2025, further compounding the supply glut.
On Asia–Europe, rates are no longer tracking traditional supply-demand dynamics. Despite ongoing diversions around Africa and the lack of available tonnage on the spot charter market, pricing has continued to fall. The nine largest liner operators require 461 ships to fully operate their 31 Asia–Europe services, yet the trade is currently short 36 vessels. Even so, freight rates from Shanghai to North Europe have plunged 45% over the past 10 weeks, with consecutive double-digit weekly drops signaling that competition among carriers has shifted into outright rate warfare.
