November 13th, 2025 – Major ocean carriers are taking active measures to manage vessel capacity as economic uncertainty in the United States dampens demand along the key eastbound trans-Pacific route.
The Freightos Baltic Index reported a sharp 48% increase in Asia–U.S. West Coast rates last week, reaching $2,958 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), largely driven by general rate increases (GRIs) introduced on November 1st. However, daily spot prices have started to edge slightly lower, while rates to the East Coast have held steady compared to October. Analysts at Freightos note that prices could soon slip back to their late October levels—rates that had themselves been elevated from early October lows due to earlier GRIs. To stabilize the market, several carriers have announced additional blank sailings this month to prevent rates from sliding further.
Despite these pricing adjustments, U.S. ports are still on pace to surpass last year’s record container volumes, even amid recent softness in demand. Carriers, however, face mounting challenges from ongoing fleet expansion and a growing surplus of capacity. The financial windfall many enjoyed in 2024 from Red Sea diversions—which temporarily lifted rates well above long-term norms—has faded. Global rate benchmarks have been running below year-ago levels since March, even as total shipping volumes have grown through 2025. As some carriers explore returning to the Suez Canal following a pause in attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militia, the added capacity on major trade routes could deepen the oversupply problem. This dynamic makes it increasingly difficult for carriers to sustain new GRIs during a period of weak demand.
In the U.S. import market, the National Retail Federation reports that October ocean imports fell back near the lows seen in May and June, when tariffs on Chinese goods surged to 145%. Additional double-digit year-over-year declines are expected in November and December, following months of tariff-driven frontloading that began in mid-August. Freightos analysts anticipate a modest rebound in import volumes leading up to Lunar New Year in January and early February, though these months will still trail significantly behind the same period in 2025, when frontloading was at its peak.
On Asia–Europe routes, freight rates climbed 9% to roughly $2,500 per FEU over the past week. November GRIs drove Mediterranean prices up 24% to $2,837 per FEU. Some carriers have already announced mid-month GRIs aimed at pushing rates closer to $3,000 per FEU as the annual long-term contract tender season begins for this trade lane.
Overall, the combination of subdued demand, expanding capacity, and shifting route dynamics continues to put pressure on global shipping lines, forcing carriers to balance rate stability efforts with the realities of a cooling market.
