February 19th, 2026 – Surging vehicle exports from China to developing markets are expected to ease growing concerns about overcapacity in the vehicle carrier sector, according to the head of one of the roll-on/roll-off industry’s largest operators.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen president and CEO Lasse Kristoffersen said rising export volumes, particularly from China, should largely keep pace with the wave of new vehicle carrier capacity entering the market this year. Drawing on manufacturers’ sales forecasts, he projected that China’s export growth will absorb much of the additional shipping space coming online.
Kristoffersen pointed to plans by China’s seven largest automakers, including BYD, Geely, Chery, and Nio, to ship an additional 2.3 million vehicles overseas this year, on top of official exports totaling 5.9 million units. That follows a sharp increase in exports last year, when China’s overseas shipments climbed 24% to 6.9 million vehicles, up from 5 million the year before.
He also highlighted the record pace of pure car and truck carrier deliveries in 2024, when 75 vessels totaling 600,000 car equivalent units joined the global fleet. Another 67 ships are scheduled for delivery this year, expanding the current fleet of 899 vessels, based on figures from AXS Marine and Clarksons.
The incoming fleet this year represents an 8% rise in global capacity to 5.3 million CEUs, following a 13% jump last year. Kristoffersen said the expected export surge from China will effectively match the extra capacity being added from shipyards, reinforcing his belief that China’s export performance will exceed expectations.
Other major operators share that view. Mitsui OSK Lines and “K” Line both noted in recent earnings statements that demand for vehicle exports should remain strong throughout the year.
Emerging markets drive demand
Kristoffersen attributed much of China’s export momentum to rapid growth in emerging markets. Latin America is forecast to see export volumes rise 40% this year, while the Middle East is expected to grow by 14%. These longer-haul routes often require voyages of up to two months, which helps absorb capacity and reduces the immediate impact of the expanding fleet.
His comments come as analysts, including Clarksons and AXS Marine, have warned that the vehicle carrier market may be heading toward oversupply, weaker freight rates, and softer demand growth due to limited scrapping activity.
In its February market report, AXS RoRo cautioned that fleet expansion has become increasingly out of proportion with underlying market fundamentals. While Chinese exports remain strong, the firm argued that much of the growth reflects shifting production and export patterns rather than a significant rise in global vehicle demand.
China continues to widen its lead over Japan, which it surpassed in 2023 to become the world’s top vehicle exporter. Over the past two years, exports from Japan and South Korea have slipped by nearly 2%, while Western manufacturers recorded steeper declines of 4% to 10% in exports to Asia last year.
AXS RoRo warned that unless scrapping activity accelerates, vessel utilization and earnings could come under pressure.
Clarksons struck a slightly more optimistic tone, noting that although one-year charter rates fell 63% by the end of last year from the exceptional highs of 2024, operators are still reporting healthy earnings as cargo continues to move under contracts renegotiated at higher levels.
Mitsui OSK Lines also highlighted the potential for increased vessel demolition, reporting that nearly 29% of the current fleet is more than 20 years old, and 18% is older than 26 years.
Kristoffersen added that falling charter rates—down from $115,000 per day for a 6,500-CEU vessel in early 2024 to around $45,000 per day last month—have created new opportunities to charter ships at more realistic levels for spot vehicle shipments and high-and-heavy cargo movements.
