November 20th, 2025 – The growing imbalance between China’s exports and imports is absorbing more functional container ship capacity, increasing the demand for equipment and handling across global supply chains. Since the United States began imposing tariffs in April, Chinese manufacturers have rapidly expanded into new markets outside the U.S., and those markets have continued to grow even as domestic consumption weakens. As a result, China’s export-to-import ratio has risen from 3.12 to 3.29 over the past two years, according to a rolling analysis of Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data.
Industry leaders note that the momentum of outbound shipments from China remains strong. This resilience has helped absorb some of the new shipping capacity entering the market, but it has also intensified the trade imbalance. Over time, this widening gap is expected to raise production costs and reduce asset efficiency for carriers.
The imbalance between China’s import and export flows has become another external factor—similar to port congestion—that reduces functional ocean capacity. These constraints will become even more significant as traditional overcapacity, measured by deployed vessels versus global demand, is projected to rise next year. BIMCO forecasts global container demand to grow 2.5% to 3.5% next year, slower than the 4.5% to 5.5% expected in 2025. Global container capacity, meanwhile, is set to end this year 7.3% above 2024 levels, with another 3.1% increase expected in 2026.
China remains a central driver of global volume growth. Export volumes have surged 20% over the past two years, with Chinese exporters expanding into Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe despite U.S. tariffs averaging around 47%. Yet domestic consumption remains stubbornly weak. It accounted for just 39% of China’s GDP in 2023, far below the U.S.’s 68%. Recent data also shows China’s manufacturing output and retail sales in October rising at their slowest pace in a year.
Overall, Chinese container trade is up about 4%, fueled by 7% export growth. This gap between robust head-haul demand and softer average growth is absorbing far more capacity than anticipated, limiting the impact of the more than 2.2 million TEUs of new tonnage delivered this year.
Globally, container imbalances are also worsening. About 41% of containers now move empty—up from less than one-third six years ago—according to Sea-Intelligence. Longer rerouted voyages, especially around the Red Sea, have increased empty-container sailing distances and added to repositioning costs.
While China’s imbalance is soaking up capacity, its long-term effect may be limited. Only eight vessels totaling 4,130 TEUs have been scrapped in 2025, but industry leaders expect scrapping, idling, and slow steaming to play a larger role as temporary disruptions fade and carriers turn back to traditional capacity-management tools.
