July 23rd, 2026 – Global container shipping is showing only modest signs of a post-peak season slowdown as conflict in the Middle East, port congestion, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty continue to influence freight markets.
Spot rates on the benchmark Asia–U.S. West Coast trade lane fell 6% during the week ending July 17th to $7,067 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), according to the Baltic Index compiled by Freightos’ SONAR platform. Rates from Asia to the U.S. East Coast remained steady at $9,102 per FEU, reflecting continued demand despite easing market conditions.
Much of the uncertainty stems from escalating tensions in the Middle East. Ongoing military exchanges between the United States and Iran have disrupted vessel traffic through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, two critical shipping corridors.
Adding to the instability, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a blockade of Saudi-linked vessels and ships calling at Saudi ports after renewed fighting with Saudi Arabia. While the extent of enforcement remains unclear, vessel tracking data has already shown some feeder ships altering course. Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could force cargo destined for Saudi Arabia to reroute around Africa, increasing transit times and placing additional pressure on Asia-Mediterranean shipping services. The renewed conflict could also delay plans by carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM to resume regular Red Sea transits.
The geopolitical unrest is also pushing up energy costs. Crude oil prices have risen approximately 20% since early July, while marine bunker fuel prices have increased about 12%, reversing more than a month of declines. Additional uncertainty surrounds the recently announced 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports, with some analysts suggesting Canadian retaliation targeting crude oil exports could further increase fuel costs for U.S. refiners.
Despite rising fuel prices, container freight rates have begun to soften for the first time since April. Additional vessel capacity entering key trade lanes and signs that the unusually early peak shipping season is winding down have reduced upward pressure on pricing. Carriers largely held off on implementing mid-July general rate increases and peak season surcharges, suggesting that demand is beginning to normalize following months of tariff-driven frontloading.
The decline has been most noticeable on trans-Pacific West Coast services, where carriers deployed additional capacity. East Coast rates have mostly remained unchanged.
At the same time, congestion across Asia continues to absorb available vessel capacity. Typhoon Bavi temporarily shut several major ports, contributing to vessel bunching in Shanghai and Ningbo, delays in Qingdao, and disruptions across eastern China, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Some carriers have responded by skipping scheduled port calls and shifting cargo through alternative transshipment hubs, adding further delays to supply chains.
Trade policy remains another key variable for importers. The expiration of tariffs on July 24th helped drive months of frontloaded imports, while the White House has announced proposed 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries tied to forced labor concerns that could be implemented soon. Meanwhile, businesses continue to watch ongoing anti-dumping investigations by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, with many expecting any additional tariff actions to be postponed until after the U.S. midterm elections.
Although freight rates have eased slightly, geopolitical tensions, weather-related disruptions, expanding capacity, and evolving trade policies are expected to keep the container shipping market volatile through the remainder of the year.
