September 18th, 2025 – The shipping industry is off track to meet its 2030 climate targets and 2050 net-zero goals as weak demand and stalled financing delay the transition to sustainable fuels, according to new research released during London International Shipping Week. While technological advances and pilot projects have expanded globally, demand growth and financing have lagged, leaving the sector, which accounts for at least 3% of global emissions, falling behind.
A report led by the UCL Energy Institute, in collaboration with the Global Maritime Forum’s Getting to Zero Coalition and the Race to Zero campaign, highlighted that current vessel orders would supply only about 37% of the zero-emission fuel needed to meet 2030 targets. Despite the increase in dual-fuel ships capable of running on methanol or LNG —which made up 70% of the 1.7 million TEUs ordered in 2024 — limited fuel availability forces many to rely largely on conventional fuels.
Financial support for alternative fuels has also stalled, with investments still heavily weighted toward fossil-fueled vessels. Analysts say stronger policy signals will be essential to unlock private capital and accelerate adoption. Without synchronized progress across technology, demand, and financing, experts warn that the sector risks falling further behind on decarbonization.
Emissions continue to rise despite these efforts. Data from Xeneta and Marine Benchmark show global container emissions reached a record 240.6 million tons in 2024, up 14% from 2023, driven in part by vessel rerouting around southern Africa. The Environmental Defense Fund and Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonization Hub report that shipping remains far from transitioning away from fossil fuels by 2050, with carbon-neutral fuel production at scale and affordable pricing still lacking.
Energy technology firm Accelleron also called for cross-industry collaboration to pool demand and accelerate the development of carbon-neutral fuels. CEO Daniel Bischofberger noted that more than $100 billion has been invested in maritime decarbonization, but emissions continue to rise. Energy-saving technologies and improved fuel efficiency are only initial steps; scaling carbon-neutral fuels is critical, not just for shipping, but for industries responsible for over 70% of global emissions.
The findings come ahead of the International Maritime Organization’s October Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting, where members are expected to adopt a “Net-Zero Framework” for international shipping. The framework would introduce a global fuel standard requiring ships to gradually increase zero-emission fuel use and implement a carbon pricing mechanism.
However, the framework faces significant challenges to implementation, with some member states expressing concerns over the proposed measures. If global consensus is delayed, regional initiatives such as the EU’s Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime would remain the primary mechanisms driving emissions reductions. The shipping sector faces increasing pressure to align investment, demand, and policy to close the widening emissions gap.
