September 11th, 2025 – U.S. retailers are bringing in more imports than they had projected a month ago, yet volumes remain on track to finish the fourth quarter below last year’s levels.
The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) from Hackett Associates, prepared for the National Retail Federation (NRF), shows inbound container volumes now expected to fall 6.8% year over year in September. That represents a sharp upward revision from the 19.4% drop forecast last month and translates to roughly 300,000 TEUs of additional imports compared with the earlier outlook.
This improved but still downbeat projection reflects months of frontloading by U.S. importers seeking to sidestep higher tariffs, coupled with slowing retail sales. The steep year-over-year declines also stem from cargo owners having accelerated shipments last fall to avoid potential labor disruptions on the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that tariffs have had a significant impact on trade and that the overall outlook for the final months of the year remains pessimistic.
Despite slower job growth and higher inflation, retail sales have held steady. Sales in June and July were up 0.5% compared with the prior year, driven in part by consumers purchasing vehicles ahead of price increases tied to new steel tariffs.
Importers expect to bring in about 290,000 fewer TEUs in October, 420,000 fewer in November, and 430,000 fewer in December than in the same months of 2024. Still, actual laden imports from Asia surged 25.7% year over year in July as tariff pressures prompted retailers to move peak-season and holiday goods earlier than usual, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce product within S&P Global.
Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said retailers have stocked up as much as possible ahead of tariff increases, but uncertainty around trade policy makes it nearly impossible to develop the long-term strategies critical for business success. That uncertainty is reflected in inventory management: from January through June, U.S. retailers maintained an average of just 1.3 months of stock, Census Bureau data shows.
Industry executives describe importers as cautious about carrying inventory given the tariff volatility. A former logistics executive at two national retailers told the Journal of Commerce that in some sectors demand remains soft, while a forwarder noted that many businesses are deliberately holding less inventory to reduce exposure to sudden tariff swings.
The timing of Lunar New Year in 2026 is also shaping shipping decisions. With the holiday falling on February 17th rather than January, there is less urgency to restock in December. Even so, GPT projects January 2026 imports will be 19.1% lower than the prior year. Meanwhile, Bain & Co. forecasts that U.S. retail sales in November and December will rise 4% year over year, short of the 10-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2%.
