May 28th, 2026 – Fuel prices that surged after the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28th have already added an estimated $5.5 billion to the bunker costs of container shipping lines, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis.
In response to the spike in operating expenses, ocean carriers have introduced emergency fuel surcharges to recover costs that Hapag-Lloyd estimates could reach as much as $50 million per week. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy noted that if elevated fuel prices tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue, the container shipping industry could slip into losses unless higher operating costs are offset by rising freight rates.
Freight rates have already begun climbing in recent weeks, particularly on the Asia-Europe trade lane, signaling that carriers are starting to pass increased fuel costs on to customers.
Bunker prices jumped sharply after the conflict began. While carriers quickly imposed emergency surcharges on spot cargo, shipments moving under long-term contracts remained tied to quarterly bunker adjustment factors (BAFs). Those additional costs are expected to be reflected in shipper contracts beginning July 1st for the third quarter.
Murphy placed the scale of the added fuel expense into perspective by comparing it with industry earnings. First-quarter 2026 financial results showed combined container shipping revenues of approximately $61 billion, while earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) totaled just $2.7 billion, highlighting how quickly higher fuel costs can erode profitability.
Meanwhile, oil prices have recently retreated to a two-week low amid hopes of a potential peace agreement between Washington and Tehran. However, renewed U.S. strikes and retaliatory Iranian fire on Monday underscored the instability of the current ceasefire.
According to Ship & Bunker, very low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) was trading Monday at $782 per metric ton, down 11% from its mid-May peak. High-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) was priced significantly lower at $628 per metric ton, representing a 13% decline from mid-May levels.
To estimate the daily additional fuel costs facing the container shipping industry during the Middle East conflict, Sea-Intelligence used annual fuel consumption estimates of 70 million tons alongside Container Trades Statistics data showing 47.2 million TEUs shipped during the first quarter of 2026. Based on those figures, the conflict-related fuel premium equates to an average added cost of approximately $117 per TEU.
The impact on carriers varies depending on vessel equipment. Ships fitted with exhaust scrubbers can burn lower-cost HSFO, while vessels without scrubbers must rely on the more expensive VLSFO, resulting in higher per-container fuel costs.
