October 30th, 2025 – The outlook for U.S. imports heading into next year appears to be improving, with some analysts seeing growing odds of a recovery from what are expected to be softer late-2025 volumes. While there is still debate about how strong 2026 will be, sentiment is shifting toward cautious optimism.
One of the clearest indicators of this shift is the lack of congestion at major import gateways such as Los Angeles–Long Beach in 2025. Industry leaders interpret this as a sign of continued fluidity through warehouses — the very points where supply chain backups first emerged in 2022. Instead of being stockpiled due to tariff-related frontloading, inventory this year has been flowing smoothly down the supply chain and into final sales. That trend, according to investment bank Jefferies, points to a likely recovery in 2026.
Data from PIERS, part of S&P Global’s Journal of Commerce, shows that U.S. imports from Asia fell nearly 12% year over year in September, despite having run at record levels earlier in the year. Forecasts suggest continued declines through the rest of this year and into early 2026. Yet some analysts believe the 2025 frontloading narrative was overstated, arguing that the real story has been one of destocking — a process that could pave the way for a stronger rebound next year.
Jefferies analysts support that view, noting that another muted peak season in 2026 seems unlikely given the leaner inventory levels now in play. The firm points out that while inventories outpaced sales across retail, wholesale, and manufacturing in 2024, the opposite occurred this year — with sales now running ahead. If 2024 was characterized by pre-buying and 2025 by destocking, 2026 may well mark a return to more normalized import activity.
Operational data supports this narrative of fluidity. U.S. ports such as Los Angeles–Long Beach have remained congestion-free throughout 2025, with low terminal dwell times, faster truck turns, and quicker chassis returns — all indicators of an efficient cargo flow. Despite recent declines, overall import volumes through September were still on pace with the pandemic peaks of 2021 and 2022. Loaded imports at LA–Long Beach reached 7.6 million TEUs through September, edging out 2021’s 7.5 million and 2022’s 7.3 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
While warehouse utilization in Southern California remains elevated, there is still capacity available — a sign that goods are continuing to flow efficiently through the supply chain rather than accumulating in storage. However, not all industry observers expect a rapid rebound. Some suggest that the current slowdown is part of a longer, more gradual import cycle likely to extend into 2026. Factors such as ongoing tariff uncertainty, a shift toward smaller, more frequent replenishment orders, greater reliance on just-in-time logistics, and uneven consumer demand could all contribute to a slower and more measured recovery.
Overall, while uncertainty remains, the balance of evidence suggests that 2026 could mark a healthier phase for U.S. imports as inventories normalize and the supply chain continues to operate with improved efficiency.
The upcoming conference is expected to conclude with a formal action plan aimed at organizing a coordinated international response to automation in maritime operations. Union leaders hope the gathering will serve as a rallying point for workers worldwide, reinforcing their demand that technological progress must not come at the cost of human employment and dignity.
