June 18th, 2026 – Although conditions in global supply chains are beginning to improve, a full return to normal operations is still likely several months away. Many shippers remain cautious and are accelerating imports to avoid anticipated fuel surcharges, tariff impacts, and planned price increases from Asian manufacturers. This early surge in demand has effectively brought forward the traditional peak shipping season.
According to the latest Freightos Baltic Index, spot rates on the Asia–U.S. West Coast trade lane held steady at $4,836 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), while rates to the U.S. East Coast increased 4% to $6,558 per FEU.
A potential breakthrough in Middle East trade routes may soon ease some pressure on global freight markets. The United States and Iran are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19th that would pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within approximately 30 days. The strategic waterway has been largely inaccessible to commercial shipping since the outbreak of conflict in late February. Following the memorandum, both countries are expected to enter a 60-day negotiation period to establish the framework for a more comprehensive agreement.
The conflict’s most significant effect on freight transportation has been its impact on fuel costs. Reopening the Strait could provide some near-term relief by allowing energy supplies to move more freely, helping stabilize bunker fuel prices. However, shipping activity is not expected to rebound immediately. While political leaders have suggested that navigation through the Strait could resume quickly, industry experts anticipate a much slower recovery due to the presence of Iranian naval mines and the extensive demining efforts required to restore safe passage.
Several nations involved in demining operations have indicated they may delay full participation until a permanent peace agreement is reached. In the meantime, only a limited number of vessels have been able to transit through designated safe corridors established under both Iranian and U.S. oversight.
Analysts estimate that daily vessel traffic may take several weeks to recover to even half of pre-war levels, while oil exports could require up to six months to return to normal. The recovery process is complicated not only by damaged infrastructure and displaced tanker fleets but also by the long transit times involved in moving crude oil to major consumption markets. Even after shipments resume, it can take roughly seven weeks for crude oil to reach destinations in the Far East, with refined products such as bunker fuel and jet fuel becoming available only after those crude supplies have been processed.
Additional delays may result from governments prioritizing the replenishment of strategic petroleum reserves, which could limit commercial fuel availability and slow any significant decline in oil prices.
Any reduction in fuel costs would likely ease some of the upward pressure on container freight rates that has persisted since the start of the conflict. However, the benefits will be unevenly distributed. Spot market shippers may see lower emergency fuel surcharges relatively quickly, while larger importers operating under annual contracts will continue to face elevated transportation costs through third-quarter Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAFs), even if fuel prices begin to soften.
Beyond fuel-related considerations, market fundamentals suggest container rates may eventually come under downward pressure as vessel capacity expands. If a broader peace agreement accelerates carriers’ return to Red Sea routes, the increase in available capacity could place additional downward pressure on freight rates.
However, these developments are unlikely to significantly affect the current peak season. Demand remains strong, and freight rates continue to rise as carriers implement General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) introduced on June 1st. Mid-month rate hikes are expected to hold as carriers manage capacity through container rollovers and tighter space allocations.
The peak season itself appears to have started earlier than usual, fueled by importers advancing shipments ahead of expected BAF increases, tariff concerns, and upcoming manufacturer price hikes. As a result, booking volumes could reach their peak as early as June, potentially creating resistance to additional carrier rate increases later in July.
