October 16th, 2025 – Spot rates on the eastbound trans-Pacific have surged by roughly $700 to the U.S. West Coast this week as retailers accelerate fourth-quarter purchase orders. The increase comes after Asian factories resumed operations following the Golden Week and Autumn festivals, creating renewed demand for shipping capacity.
The price hike stems from a general rate increase (GRI) implemented midweek, lifting West Coast rates to about $2,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), up from $1,300 the previous week. Forwarders and carrier representatives confirm that carriers are successfully securing these higher rates from customers, citing stronger-than-expected bookings following the festivals and a market showing signs of resilience.
Rates to the U.S. East Coast have also risen, reaching between $3,050 and $3,100 per FEU, compared with $2,300 previously. However, many in the industry caution that the recent gains may prove short-lived. As seen with the September 1st GRI, current increases could begin declining within a week to ten days, with additional GRI efforts anticipated for November 1st and November 15th.
For now, the trans-Pacific market is being supported by reduced vessel capacity as carriers continue to blank sailings and suspend some weekly services to offset the weaker import demand seen in August and September.
Adding another layer of complexity are tariff uncertainties stemming from shifting U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration. These ongoing policy changes have prompted many retailers to rush shipments before potential new tariffs take effect, contributing to a flurry of activity as the year-end approaches.
Looking ahead, major retailers—especially large national chains—are already turning their attention to replenishing inventories and placing spring season orders. Forwarding executives expect this to translate into increased orders through November and December as companies position themselves for early 2026 sales cycles.
This year’s traditional peak season has been anything but typical. Constant tariff adjustments disrupted normal shipping flows, shifting the usual late-summer import surge into July, when U.S. imports from Asia peaked at 1.81 million TEUs. That figure fell to 1.75 million in August and 1.58 million in September, according to PIERS data from S&P Global.
With carriers already filing 30-day notices for additional GRIs in November, further rate hikes—though likely temporary—appear inevitable as liners work to establish a pricing floor after months of declines. According to one carrier executive, rates had fallen to unsustainable levels, and the current push represents a familiar attempt to stabilize the market.
