July 31st, 2025 – Shippers moving cargo into North Europe should brace for worsening delays through August and September, as a surge of inbound containers from Asia adds pressure to already congested gateway ports.
Strong import demand in Europe has kept ships full for months, with volumes growing at double-digit rates. That trend is expected to continue through the third quarter, with August and September forecasted as the peak for both cargo arrivals and congestion. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust reports that China’s exports to Europe rose 13% in Q2 and are likely to maintain that pace into the second half. If so, North Europe could see over 2 million TEUs arrive in just two months.
Seasonally, July is when most cargo departs from Asia to Europe, aligning with the expected spike in arrivals. However, European terminals are already under strain. Vessels are arriving off-schedule, berthing windows are missed, and full container yards are slowing operations. Reserve capacity at many ports is exhausted, and extended container dwell times—often worsened by carriers offering extended free time—are clogging up space.
While not all terminals are equally affected, ports like London Gateway, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam are seeing the most severe impacts. Inland congestion is also worsening due to barge delays tied to low water levels on major rivers like the Rhine, limiting inland cargo movement.
Carriers are responding with route adjustments. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation has added direct calls to Denmark and Sweden, avoiding transshipment in Rotterdam. MSC is bypassing Benelux ports by sailing directly from Ecuador to St. Petersburg. Some carriers are shifting volumes to less congested terminals or ports like Le Havre and Zeebrugge, while others are transferring containers to inland depots to ease pressure on yards—though limited space and river conditions restrict this option.
Congestion is also being driven by rerouted vessels around southern Africa, which has increased transit times and led to the deployment of larger ships that require longer port stays. As a result, Asia–North Europe schedule reliability has fallen from 42% in May to 29% in July, according to eeSea data.
With few short-term solutions available, industry analysts expect congestion to intensify over the summer before conditions start to improve later in the year.
