February 26th, 2026 – Schedule reliability across global ocean carriers declined sharply in January, as extended wait times and congestion at major Asian hubs combined with widespread winter weather disruptions in the North Atlantic to strain liner networks at the start of 2026.
Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows that while the Gemini Cooperation alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd continued to lead the industry in on-time performance, even its comparatively resilient network was affected by mounting operational pressures. According to Xeneta senior market analyst Destine Ozuygur, nearly all alliance networks experienced performance declines at the outset of the year, underscoring the operational headwinds expected through the first and second quarters. Ocean Alliance, Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), and Gemini each saw reliability fall by five to seven percentage points during the month, while non-alliance services were the only segment to avoid a decline.
Gemini posted a 68% on-time performance in January, down from 75% in December. Ocean Alliance fell from 28% to 23%, MSC dropped from 26% to 18%, and Premier Alliance remained at 13%, unchanged from the prior month. Non-alliance carriers also held steady at 28%.
While fluctuating reliability has been relatively common for MSC, the erosion in Gemini’s performance highlighted the severity of localized disruptions. Prolonged congestion at Asian hubs throughout January, combined with severe weather across the North Atlantic, created operational strain even for the most stable networks. Gemini’s stated ambition of achieving a 90% on-time arrival rate across all corridors has proven difficult to realize under current conditions. However, its hub-and-spoke model, led by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has demonstrated relative resilience.
One factor supporting Gemini’s stability has been its limited use of blank sailings. In 2025, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced just 18 blank sailings, including only two on the Asia–North America trade and nine on Asia–Europe tied exclusively to China’s Golden Week. By contrast, Premier Alliance announced 84 blank sailings on Asia–North America and 181 globally.
Globally, schedule reliability continued to deteriorate in January. Only 29% of vessel arrivals were on time, down from 32% in December and well below the 34% to 37% range recorded during the second and third quarters of 2025. Delays also grew longer, with average berth delays increasing from 3.7 days in December to 4.2 days in January.
On the trans-Atlantic westbound trade from Europe to North America, on-time arrivals fell 10 percentage points to 32%. Asia–North America reliability declined eight percentage points to 29%.
Severe winter weather played a significant role in trans-Atlantic disruptions. A succession of intense winter storms battered Europe, bringing large swells and gale-force winds to the Western Mediterranean and freezing temperatures to Northern European ports. The extreme conditions hampered terminal and yard operations and forced vessels to wait out storms, resulting in week-long delays across 16 services calling at ports along the U.S. East Coast.
Meanwhile, the trans-Pacific trade recorded its weakest reliability since January of the previous year, matching the 29% on-time performance seen then. Although this year’s disruptions have been less tied to sweeping network overhauls, their operational impact has been comparable.
Compounding the situation is a seasonal spike in cancellations expected in February and March, totaling 687,000 TEUs and 93 canceled sailings. This combination of delays and cancellations points to a challenging start to 2026 for U.S. shippers.
With contract tender season approaching, shippers and forwarders are entering a critical decision window. Carrier selection decisions will likely require closer scrutiny of transit times, on-time performance, and cancellation rates before contracts are finalized, as reliability trends remain under pressure.
