April 30th, 2026 – Container shipping executives indicated this week that global bunker fuel supplies are tightening as a result of the ongoing war-driven energy shock. This has led to congestion at certain fueling hubs and has forced some vessels to refuel at alternative ports. However, industry leaders emphasized that the situation has not yet escalated into outright fuel shortages affecting service reliability.
According to Fabio Santucci, president of Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s U.S. office, the current environment requires more advance planning and coordination for fuel procurement, though conditions have not reached the point of true scarcity. Stuart Sandlin, president of Hapag-Lloyd North America, shared a similar view, noting that while rising fuel costs are a concern, there are no immediate warning signs disrupting operations.
Despite this relative stability, analysts caution that continued tightening—especially with the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz—could force carriers to reduce capacity through blank sailings or even cancel services in the months ahead. For now, shippers are primarily focused on understanding the financial impact: how much fuel costs are increasing, how surcharges are calculated, and how much further energy prices could climb.
Fuel costs have surged significantly, roughly doubling since the onset of the Middle East conflict in late February. In response, ocean carriers have introduced emergency fuel surcharges that can reach several hundred dollars per container, in addition to standard quarterly bunker adjustment factor (BAF) increases. Because BAF adjustments are not scheduled to reset until July 1st, carriers like Hapag-Lloyd have temporarily absorbed much of the cost increase—amounting to approximately $50 million per week, according to Sandlin.
The company has also communicated to customers that emergency surcharges are intended to be temporary and responsive. If fuel prices decline, those additional charges will be returned accordingly, reinforcing that the intent is cost recovery rather than profit expansion.
On the demand side, carriers report no significant pullback in U.S. imports since the conflict began. However, there is growing concern about the broader outlook for 2026, with expectations pointing toward flat or minimal trade growth. Data from PIERS shows that U.S. laden imports declined 5.2% year over year in the first quarter, though March volumes reached 2.33 million TEUs—the highest level recorded since August.
Current volumes remain supported by seasonal restocking, with major shippers planning steady shipment levels over at least the next quarter. Even so, carriers are increasingly concerned about the imbalance between rapidly rising operating costs and slower revenue growth. This dynamic raises questions about long-term service sustainability, as carriers may need to redeploy assets toward more profitable routes, potentially affecting the reliability of both import and export supply chains.
