January 8th, 2026 – Trans-Pacific container rates out of Asia are expected to remain firm and continue strengthening as shippers push cargo ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.
Ocean freight pricing on the major east–west trade lanes closed the year on an upward trend. Asia–Europe spot rates increased modestly to $2,742 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) but remain 12% higher than mid-month levels and have returned to pricing last seen near the end of peak season. Rates on the Asia–Mediterranean lane rose more sharply, climbing 4% to reach roughly $4,000 per FEU for the first time since early July, representing a 20% increase compared with the first half of the month.
These gains are supported by an earlier-than-usual start to pre–Lunar New Year shipping activity. Red Sea diversions continue to force longer transit times, prompting shippers to move cargo sooner than normal. With Chinese factories set to shut down for several weeks during the holiday period, rate levels are expected to remain elevated and could rise further as the holiday approaches.
While some major container carriers have recently tested the return of larger vessels to the Red Sea–Suez Canal route, a rapid resumption of normal traffic remains unlikely. Carriers are under pressure from declining profitability linked to longer voyages and high operating costs. A full return to the Red Sea would also reintroduce as much as 2 million TEUs of capacity into the market, potentially undermining current rate strength.
Security risks remain a major deterrent. While Yemen-based Houthi militants halted attacks on Israel-linked shipping after the Gaza ceasefire, they continue to monitor regional developments. Tensions intensified in late December following a Saudi strike on Yemen’s Port of Mukalla, and broader instability, including protests in Iran, adds to concerns about further disruption across the Middle East.
On the Asia–U.S. trade lanes, general rate increases implemented since October have proven less effective at sustaining higher pricing compared with Asia–Europe routes. Since mid-December, West Coast rates have risen 9% to $2,145 per FEU, while East Coast rates climbed 15% to $3,364 per FEU.
Pre–Lunar New Year demand is expected to apply additional upward pressure on rates, similar to patterns seen at the start of 2024 and 2025. However, with the holiday beginning later than usual on February 17th, there remains the possibility of a short-term rate dip before volumes accelerate.
Globally, container volumes grew 4% through early fourth quarter despite declining U.S. ocean imports. That growth was supported by China’s continued diversification of trade toward Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Looking ahead, U.S. ocean imports are projected to decline again in 2026, marking one of the few instances of consecutive-year import contraction over the past two decades.
