June 12th, 2025 – Retailers are preparing for a surge in import cargo at U.S. ports this summer, fueled by a 90-day pause in the ongoing tariff conflict between the United States and China. The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker (GPT) highlights how this temporary relief in trade tensions is reshaping import strategies, particularly ahead of the critical back-to-school and fall-winter holiday seasons.
With tariffs on some Chinese goods temporarily reduced from a peak of 145% down to 30%, many retailers who previously scaled back or suspended orders are now ramping up imports. This shift is creating an atypical early convergence of seasonal inventory peaks, compressing timelines as businesses work to capitalize on the short window of lower duties.
Economic data from U.S. ports reflects the volatility of this period. In April, before the full effects of the earlier tariff hikes were felt, ports processed 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 2.9% from March and 9.6% year-over-year. But in May, volume dropped sharply to a projected 1.91 million TEUs – a 13.4% decrease from April and 8.1% below May 2024 levels. This marked the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest monthly volume since December.
Despite the downturn in May, import volumes are expected to rebound in June as retailers race to move goods through ports before tariffs resume. June volumes are forecasted at 2.01 million TEUs, down 6.2% from last year, followed by 2.13 million TEUs in July (down 8.1%) and 1.98 million TEUs in August (down 14.7%). These figures underscore that while the pause has sparked renewed activity, overall levels remain subdued compared to 2024.
The NRF notes that the compression of peak-season shipments due to tariff scheduling changes reflects the increasingly complex global trade environment. However, this momentum is not expected to last. Unless additional tariff relief measures are enacted, port volumes are likely to fall off significantly in the latter part of 2025.
Forecasts for September and October signal steeper declines – 1.78 million TEUs in September (down 21.8% year-over-year) and 1.8 million TEUs in October (down 19.8%). These numbers also reflect inflated comparisons against late 2024, when concerns over East and Gulf Coast labor disruptions pushed import volumes higher.
For the first half of 2025, total import volumes are projected at 12.54 million TEUs, a 3.7% increase over the same period last year. While this marks an upward revision due to the tariff pause, it still falls short of earlier expectations set before the tariff escalation began in April.
