November 20th, 2025 – Fewer blank sailings in November have stabilized capacity on the India–U.S. East Coast trade, but that stability is now driving rates down for carriers still grappling with the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Apart from two voided calls on CMA CGM’s Indamex service, westbound departures from Nhava Sheva and Mundra have largely remained on schedule across major strings run by Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and Maersk.
The resulting oversupply has pushed spot rates on the lane to their lowest levels since February. Platts (part of S&P Global and a sister brand to the Journal of Commerce) assessed India–USEC spot pricing at $1,450 per FEU as of November 18th—down 9% week over week and just above the February low of $1,330 per FEU. Forwarders report that some carriers are quoting even more aggressively, offering rates between $1,200 and $1,300 per FEU for Nhava Sheva–New York bookings, a significant decline from late October when prices sat $200 to $300 higher.
Market sources note that while cargo demand has softened, the sharper issue is excess tonnage. Utilization on USEC sailings from West India has slipped to roughly 60%–70%, well below the typical 80%–90% range. Carriers are responding by trimming operating costs and, in some cases, undercutting competitors to keep loadings closer to planned allocations.
There is cautious optimism that an early breakthrough in ongoing trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington could help revive volumes. However, carriers also acknowledge that a wider industry return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal—an area showing early signs of reopening—could introduce new capacity challenges. The pace at which the Suez route normalizes will determine whether the sector faces another bout of volatility or a more orderly reset, with a gradual, sequenced restoration seen as the most stabilizing path.
Compounding the pressure, India’s export performance weakened sharply in October. Official provisional data shows overall goods exports falling nearly 12% by value year over year, with shipments to the U.S. down 7%. Containerized exports to the U.S. East Coast followed the same trajectory, slipping to just under 70,000 TEUs in October from nearly 88,000 TEUs in September, according to PIERS, another S&P Global product.
