August 21st, 2025 – The full toll of U.S. tariffs on China is now becoming clear, with import volumes and supply chain dynamics showing mounting strain. After months of frontloading that pulled demand forward and inflated early peak-season volumes, U.S. retailers are cutting back orders amid slowing economic conditions and higher tariff costs. The result is a market facing both softer demand and rising operational costs.
Uncertainty over future tariff levels is creating hesitation, particularly among small and medium-sized importers. While shipments from China have not collapsed as they briefly did when tariff rates spiked in April, forwarders report widespread caution in booking new orders. Laden volumes from Asia to the U.S. rose to a six-month high in July as importers raced to beat August tariff deadlines, but forecasts suggest a steep decline ahead. Global Port Tracker projects August imports will be up 5.8% year over year, but volumes from September through December are expected to fall at least 20% each month.
Small importers are under the most pressure as higher tariff costs erode margins. Many are passing increases to consumers or pushing them back onto suppliers, but neither solution has proven sustainable. Indicators of price hikes are growing: the National Federation of Independent Businesses reported in July that the likelihood of small business owners raising prices hit its highest level since March 2024, while a U.S. Census Bureau survey found 34% of businesses planned price increases in the months ahead, up from 29% earlier in the summer. Even large retailers are adjusting, with Home Depot implementing modest price increases after initially pledging to hold the line.
The ripple effects extend to logistics costs. Demurrage charges at U.S. ports have surged, with average container dwell times jumping from 3.8 days in January to 8.1 in July [according to GoComet data]. Some importers of lower-value goods are abandoning containers outright, while others are shifting toward origin-controlled shipping or facing steep warehouse bills. Vessel delays have added pressure, but tariff uncertainty remains the primary driver, with importers both expediting and canceling shipments mid-voyage.
Confidence is further dampened by uncertainty over whether the current 55% tariff rate will hold beyond the November 10th tariff truce deadline. With replenishment orders slowing to a trickle, some importers are even shifting to small-parcel shipments to keep goods moving. For many, the next few months promise to be the most difficult stretch yet in navigating the tariff-driven disruptions of trans-Pacific trade.
