October 23rd, 2025 – Air freight demand across the trans-Pacific has surged sharply as U.S. shippers accelerate orders ahead of a potential new round of tariffs on Chinese goods. The rush follows President Donald Trump’s informal announcement on October 10th of a proposed additional 100% tariff, set to take effect November 1st, in response to Beijing’s plans to tighten export controls on rare earth minerals—critical inputs for high-tech manufacturing, renewable energy production, and defense systems.
Although the White House has yet to issue an official directive on the tariff increase, uncertainty has driven U.S. importers to act quickly. With little time to move goods by sea, many have turned to air freight as the fastest alternative to beat the November deadline. Logistics providers report a wave of shipments being advanced, as companies seek to protect their supply chains from potential cost hikes.
Industry leaders suggest the tariff announcement may also serve as a strategic maneuver aimed at pressuring China to reconsider its restrictions on rare earth exports. Regardless of the motivations, air freight activity into the United States has intensified. Carriers report surging bookings and an uptick in rates immediately following the announcement.
Freightos data shows that average rates jumped 19% in the week after the tariff threat, reaching $5.30 per kilogram. Despite the initial spike, prices have since stabilized, though analysts expect further insight into rate trends as the surge in demand continues. One factor tempering rate escalation is the availability of capacity across the trans-Pacific. Freighter operators, having faced similar scenarios in previous rounds of tariff-related rushes, were well-prepared to deploy additional aircraft and adjust schedules to meet the sudden demand.
According to air cargo analyst Rotate, available capacity on China–U.S. routes increased 24% in the week following the announcement and remains up 21% year-over-year. The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) noted that carriers anticipated the frontloading activity, allowing them to mobilize capacity efficiently and avoid bottlenecks.
In contrast, maritime supply chains have been slower to react, constrained by longer lead times and scheduling rigidity. Many shippers have opted for a cautious “wait and see” approach for non-urgent goods while shifting critical shipments to air freight.
However, logistics experts warn that such recurring cycles of frontloading—where sudden surges in demand precede tariff deadlines—create volatility in pricing and disrupt the stability of freight networks. The constant shifts make it difficult for carriers to maintain consistent operations or predictable rate structures, underscoring how geopolitical uncertainty continues to ripple through global supply chains.
Trans-Border will continue to monitor developments closely and will share updates — including any guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) — as information becomes available.
