July 9th, 2026 – U.S. truckload spot rates climbed to record levels right before the July 4th holiday, surpassing the highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic as shrinking carrier capacity continues to outweigh relatively soft freight demand
While summer is typically a slower season for trucking, market conditions suggest rates may remain elevated longer than usual. Rather than being driven by a surge in freight volumes, the latest price increases are largely the result of tightening truck capacity.
The latest Cass Freight Shipments Index showed combined truck and rail shipments in May were 1.2% lower than a year earlier, although the decline has narrowed in recent months. At the same time, continued exits by small trucking companies and fleet reductions among larger carriers have significantly reduced available capacity, creating upward pressure on pricing.
Industry analysts say the current truckload market reflects a structural shift rather than a typical freight cycle. Capacity could tighten further if proposed federal legislation restricting commercial driver’s license eligibility is enacted, potentially reducing the available driver pool even more.
Those supply constraints have pushed spot rates beyond levels many believed would only be possible during a major freight boom. Spot prices are now exceeding contract rates, reversing the traditional pricing relationship. According to DAT Freight & Analytics, average spot rates in early July were about 12 cents per mile higher than contract rates, while contract rates have increased more than 10% year over year.
DAT reported the national average dry-van spot rate reached $2.49 per mile, excluding fuel surcharges, during the week ending July 3rd, up 7 cents from the previous week. That marks a new Week 27 record, exceeding the previous high set in 2021. National dry-van spot rates are now nearly 49% higher than a year ago.
Regional markets have experienced even sharper increases. Spot rates originating in the Southeast rose more than 57% year over year, while California saw gains exceeding 51%. Rates from the Northeast increased just over 30%.
Higher spot pricing is expected to feed into contract negotiations over the coming months. Because contract rates typically lag spot market movements by about six months, many shippers could face additional transportation cost increases through late 2026 and into 2027.
Port Volumes Add to Pricing Pressure
Truckload rates have risen particularly sharply on lanes serving major U.S. ports, reflecting elevated import activity earlier this year.
Savannah recorded one of the largest increases, with dry-van spot rates averaging $3.54 per mile in May, up 23% from a year earlier. Houston and Los Angeles also posted gains of roughly 12%, reaching $3.36 and $3.22 per mile, respectively.
Much of that strength has been fueled by importers frontloading holiday merchandise and industrial cargo ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff increases scheduled to take effect July 24th, creating additional demand for inland transportation.
Capacity constraints are also evident in DAT’s load-to-truck ratio, which reached 11.16 loads per truck during the week ending July 3rd. The June average stood at 10.61, nearly double the 5.79 recorded in June 2025 and well above the 4.72 reported in June 2024.
Shippers are increasingly turning to the spot market to secure available trucks, with load postings on DAT’s freight boards rising about 35% year over year.
With freight demand remaining relatively steady but truck capacity continuing to shrink, market indicators suggest elevated truckload rates are likely to persist through the remainder of the summer and into the fall shipping season, leaving shippers facing continued transportation cost pressure heading toward 2027.
