May 1st, 2025 – Ocean carriers are aggressively scaling back vessel capacity on the trans-Pacific route as the US-China trade conflict, sparked by tariffs from the Trump administration, continues with no clear end in sight.
The sharp decline in US-bound exports from China has prompted carriers to accelerate blank sailings and suspend services —a trend that began in early April—making it increasingly difficult for shippers to secure vessel space and resulting in delays of several weeks. According to data from Vizion and Dun & Bradstreet, bookings from China to the US dropped nearly 54% during the week of April 21–28 compared to the same period in March.
Carriers such as Zim Integrated Shipping Services, Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), and Premier Alliance members HMM, Ocean Network Express (ONE), and Yang Ming have all announced reductions in trans-Pacific capacity due to declining volumes.
Despite the volume drop, freight rates have remained stable, as carriers strategically adjust supply to avoid rate collapses like those seen before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. These capacity adjustments, which intensified throughout April, are expected to continue into May.
In April alone, Zim and MSC removed a combined 100,000 TEUs from the trans-Pacific route. Zim suspended its ZX2 service — which links Asia to the US West Coast — eliminating around 35,000 TEUs, while MSC halted its Orient service, pulling out about 77,000 TEUs, based on data from maritime intelligence provider eeSea.
Plans to launch the PS5 service under the Premier Alliance in May have been postponed indefinitely, further reducing available capacity. Some carriers are also redirecting vessels from China to Southeast Asian routes as demand shifts.
Southeast Asia Sees Growing Demand
U.S. importers are increasingly shifting sourcing to Southeast Asia in search of more cost-effective options. Bookings from the region rose over 20% during the week of April 21 compared to two weeks prior, according to Vizion.
Blank sailings continue to rise. eeSea reports that nearly 14% of trans-Pacific capacity was blanked in April, with that figure expected to rise to 18% in May. Port calls across the broader trans-Pacific trade have also decreased significantly, with over 25% of scheduled calls eliminated between April 7–21.
Carriers Adjust Service Frequencies
To better manage available capacity, carriers are modifying service schedules. Cosco Shipping, part of the Ocean Alliance, is shifting its Bohai service to the Port of Long Beach from weekly to bi-weekly through mid-June.
Other Ocean Alliance services remain on a weekly schedule. Evergreen Marine’s HTW express service and Cosco’s Yangtse service continue operating regularly, as both routes include stops in markets like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan.
However, the ongoing capacity cuts raise concerns about future schedule reliability. If trade volumes recover quickly — particularly if tariffs are lifted — the industry may face challenges in restoring service levels fast enough to meet demand.
