August 13th, 2026 – Container rates on key Asia-to-U.S. trade lanes are climbing as stronger-than-expected consumer demand extends beyond what had appeared to be an early peak shipping season.
The increase comes as inflation continues to raise the cost of retail goods and industrial products, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions add further uncertainty to global ocean shipping.
Conditions in the Middle East remain a significant concern. The prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict has left control and access through the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, with little indication that the stalemate will ease soon. Iranian leaders have signaled a willingness to maintain their position through the remainder of the Trump administration if necessary, while escalating their demands to include restrictions on U.S. vessels, transit fees and war reparations.
Despite the heightened risk, major global carriers including CMA CGM, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. have expanded operations or returned to the Red Sea, even as attacks on commercial shipping continue.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations security monitor reported two incidents in the region Tuesday. A cargo vessel off the coast of Yemen in the southern Red Sea was struck by an unidentified projectile, while a container ship in the Gulf of Oman was reportedly targeted by military forces. Additional details were not immediately available.
At the same time, ocean freight demand remains resilient. The SONAR Ocean Booking Index continues to show steady year-over-year growth, while rates on major trans-Pacific routes are moving higher.
According to the latest Freightos Baltic Index, Asia-to-U.S. West Coast container rates increased 11% to $6,826 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Asia-to-U.S. East Coast rates rose 1% to $9,144 per FEU, reaching a new high for the year.
Trans-Pacific rates had largely moved alongside Asia-Europe pricing following the early start to peak season in late May, but the two markets have recently begun to diverge.
East Coast pricing, which had remained relatively stable around $9,000 per FEU since early July, has moved toward approximately $9,400 per FEU this week. West Coast rates have also rebounded sharply. After declining through much of July, potentially because of additional carrier capacity rather than weaker volumes, prices have risen by roughly $1,300 per FEU since the beginning of August to approximately $7,400 per FEU. Even with that increase, West Coast rates remain slightly below their July peak.
The unexpected strength in imports has prompted the National Retail Federation to revise its outlook. Rather than anticipating a significant decline in imports during August and September, the organization now expects demand to remain more consistently elevated through September.
Several factors may be contributing to the shift. Some shippers that had accelerated imports ahead of the July tariff deadline appear to have extended their ordering after a substantial increase in duties failed to materialize. Others may have initially taken a more cautious approach to peak-season inventory because of economic uncertainty but are now increasing shipments as consumer spending continues to demonstrate resilience despite persistent inflation.
Taken together, resilient consumer demand, shifting tariff expectations and continued geopolitical instability are keeping pressure on ocean freight markets. With trans-Pacific rates moving higher and import demand holding stronger than previously anticipated, shippers could face elevated transportation costs and continued volatility as the peak shipping season progresses.
