January 15th, 2025 – Container rates on the eastbound trans-Pacific continued to strengthen, signaling that U.S. retailers may be growing more confident about restocking activity.
Asia-U.S. West Coast spot rates rose 5% week over week to $2,757 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), according to data from Freightos, while rates to the U.S. East Coast climbed 7% to $4,033 per FEU.
The increase is notable, occurring earlier than usual ahead of the Lunar New Year period, but the timing aligns with the latest U.S. ocean import projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF is forecasting January import volumes to be 6% higher than December, marking the first month-over-month increase since July.
Despite recent momentum, January volumes are still expected to trail last year’s levels by roughly 5%, with year-over-year deficits projected to continue through April as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on U.S. demand. Even so, the NRF’s January report reflects a more optimistic outlook for 2026 than it did in the previous month, suggesting that importers may be cautiously improving their expectations for post-holiday restocking.
Outside of North America, Asia–Northern Europe spot rates slipped 1% to $2,978 per FEU, while Asia–Mediterranean pricing held steady at $4,851 per FEU. Levine observed that current rate levels have climbed back to those last seen during the 2025 peak season. Pre-Lunar New Year demand has been supporting January general rate increases, even as carriers add capacity to accommodate rising shipment volumes.
The seasonal demand surge appears to have started earlier than usual and may already be nearing its peak, as daily rates showed signs of easing later in the week. At the same time, several carriers have announced mid-month general rate increases targeting approximately $4,000 per FEU for Northern Europe and more than $5,500 per FEU for Mediterranean routes. Ongoing service disruptions at key European ports caused by harsh weather conditions could further support elevated rate levels in the near term.
