February 12th, 2026 – Ocean container rates on the benchmark eastbound trans-Pacific route have erased the gains achieved earlier in 2026, as softer demand signals the start of a seasonal lull that may persist until the traditional peak shipping period.
While ocean rates often ease ahead of major holidays, they typically remain elevated compared to pre-rush levels until post-holiday backlogs are cleared. However, current pricing trends suggest the market may be moving into a more noticeable slowdown earlier than usual.
The latest Freightos Baltic Index data reflects this shift. Asia–U.S. West Coast rates dropped 21% week over week to $1,916 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), while Asia–U.S. East Coast prices declined 10% to $3,457 per FEU. West Coast rates have fallen back to levels last seen in early December. The more than 20% weekly slide to roughly $1,900 per FEU indicates that pricing may already be entering the typical post–Lunar New Year, pre-peak season slowdown.
Import projections reinforce the softer outlook. The National Retail Federation’s U.S. ocean import report forecasts a 5% month-over-month decline in March volumes. First-quarter demand is expected to trail year-ago levels by 7%, as retailers remain cautious and comparisons are made against heavily frontloaded shipments in the first quarter of last year.
Operationally, most U.S. container ports and air cargo hubs have rebounded from disruptions caused by a recent winter storm, however, inland rail terminals continue to experience backlogs, contributing to ongoing delays for shippers.
On the supply side, record global container volumes in 2024 were insufficient to absorb the rapid expansion of carrier fleets with financial results reflecting the imbalance. Maersk recently reported its first quarterly loss in years, while its Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd also posted lower earnings despite traffic growth. Maersk has, for the first time, incorporated the possibility of a recession in a major economy into its outlook and projected a potential $1 billion swing in profit or loss, depending on whether significant container traffic resumes through the Red Sea.
