March 19th, 2026 – Container lines that had temporarily paused trans-Pacific service contract negotiations to evaluate the effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have resumed discussions. Momentum is building quickly, with expectations that major retailers will finalize agreements within the next week following Walmart’s completion of its 2026–27 contracts with several core carriers.
Walmart’s decision is expected to trigger a broader wave of contract signings across the industry. Large retailers typically lead the cycle, opening the door for smaller importers and then non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOCCs) to negotiate their own service contracts.
Even with uncertainty surrounding the duration and scope of the Middle East conflict, now entering its second week, carriers report that large retailers are prioritizing the need to secure vessel capacity. Walmart, as the largest U.S. importer, has already concluded negotiations with its primary carrier partners, signaling confidence in locking in space despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
Carriers and some freight forwarders are encouraging customers to move forward with negotiations rather than delaying decisions due to global uncertainty. In recent years, repeated disruptions to the ocean freight market—including geopolitical tensions, tariff volatility, and weather-related impacts—have created a pattern of unpredictability. As a result, some beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) have opted to reduce exposure to risk by finalizing contracts earlier, even at rates higher than initially anticipated.
Market forecasts around supply and demand have frequently missed the mark amid this volatility, prompting a shift in how some shippers approach negotiations. There is growing recognition that aggressively pushing rates to unsustainable levels may introduce greater risk, particularly when unexpected global events can quickly disrupt supply chains and capacity availability.
Fuel costs are also playing a significant role in current negotiations. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up bunker fuel prices, leading to increased focus on bunker adjustment factors within contracts. However, many shippers remain hesitant to absorb higher operating costs tied to a region that does not directly impact certain trade lanes.
Despite these challenges, industry sentiment suggests that delaying contract negotiations offers little advantage. Ongoing uncertainty around capacity and fuel costs is acknowledged, but most stakeholders are proceeding cautiously rather than waiting for full clarity.
Capacity conditions on the Asia–U.S. West Coast route remain relatively stable and are not expected to significantly hinder negotiations. However, if the Middle East conflict continues, East Coast routings—particularly from the Indian subcontinent—could face disruptions due to increasing congestion at regional ports.
In the current environment, industry leaders are advising importers to secure minimum quantity commitments as soon as they have sufficient visibility into their shipping needs. BCOs who delay negotiations in hopes of achieving lower rates carry the risk of backfiring, especially in a market where conditions can shift rapidly and unpredictably.
