February 26th, 2026 – Ocean carriers and U.S. importers are moving cautiously in negotiating contracts for the 2026–27 trans-Pacific service year, as spot rates to the U.S. West Coast have fallen more than 20% since early January and are expected by many to decline further.
Both sides are deliberately waiting. Carriers hope market fundamentals may shift to slow or reverse the softening trend, while shippers prefer to watch spot rates continue falling before signing service contracts, most of which begin May 1st. Spot rates are a key benchmark in annual negotiations because they reflect how well carriers are balancing supply and demand.
This year’s contracting cycle is running behind schedule. In prior years, at least one or two major big-box retailers would have signed agreements ahead of the Journal of Commerce’s Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference (TPM), typically setting a pricing floor for the rest of the market. Other importers would then finalize contracts in March and April. With TPM26 scheduled for March 1st–4th in Long Beach, no major retailers have signed yet, and negotiations are estimated to be two to three weeks late.
Even where discussions are advanced, most customers are holding back to see how the market develops after TPM and whether spot rates soften further.
Conditions favor shippers
Market signals currently favor importers. Demand remains soft, and no significant surge in imports is expected in March as Asian factories resume production following the Lunar New Year holiday that began February 17th.
Retailers and direct importers are delaying contract commitments in anticipation of further spot rate declines, which could pressure carriers to lower their contract offers. For mid-size importers in particular, waiting provides more clarity on market direction. Some have already issued standard tenders to core carrier partners but are not rushing to finalize agreements.
Spot rates slide sharply
As of February 19th, spot rates from North Asia to the U.S. West Coast stood at $1,600 per FEU, down 23% since early January and 42% lower year over year, according to Platts, part of S&P Global. Rates to the U.S. East Coast were at $2,400 per FEU, down 21% this year and 39% lower than a year ago.
Data from Xeneta shows Asia–West Coast rates at $1,356 per FEU on February 19th, compared with $2,289 per FEU on January 4th — nearly a 60% year-over-year decline.
Retailers report that while tenders are largely prepared, final decisions are being timed around TPM26 to gain better visibility into second-quarter demand. With Q2 volumes currently soft, carriers are watching closely to see whether demand rebounds following Lunar New Year.
Capacity remains ample
Unlike in recent years when tight vessel space drove importers to secure minimum quantity commitments early, capacity is widely available in 2026. According to Xeneta’s eeSea data, actual capacity on the Asia–U.S. West Coast trade lane totaled 1.19 million TEUs in January and is projected to rise to 1.26 million in February and 1.4 million in March.
Analysts note that carriers did not sufficiently adjust capacity ahead of Lunar New Year, contributing to excess supply. With no strong holiday surge and rates under pressure, carriers are struggling to align supply with demand — leaving negotiations in a holding pattern as both sides await clearer market signals.
