February 5th, 2026 – Soft spot rates, weak volume forecasts, and shaky consumer confidence are combining to reshape the trans-Pacific container market—where ongoing tariff concerns have taken the steam out of what is usually a strong pre–Lunar New Year shipping rush in 2026.
Industry sources say consistently weak market fundamentals have made this year unusually quiet in the weeks leading up to Lunar New Year, which begins February 17th. While factories in China will still close for at least a week for the holiday—normally triggering a noticeable rush of freight before production pauses—this year the expected spike in demand just isn’t there.
An ocean carrier executive described the situation as muted, explaining that demand is subdued and retailers remain uncertain about tariffs. The executive also noted that much of the spring merchandise movement has already been frontloaded, reducing the need for a late-season push.
Even if there was any meaningful rush earlier in the year, it appears to have already passed. Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said the peak is clearly behind the market. Sand added that this year is again defined by supply growth outpacing demand growth, reinforcing the broader imbalance weighing on rates.
Spot pricing has been sliding heading into the factory closures, driven largely by weak importer demand. North Asia–to–U.S. West Coast spot rates that opened January at $2,075 per FEU fell to $1,900 as of Tuesday, according to Platts. Drewry’s Shanghai-to–Los Angeles assessment dropped from $3,132 per FEU on January 8th to $2,442 by the end of the month, while the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed Shanghai–West Coast rates at $1,867 per FEU as of January 30th, down from $2,188 at the start of January. Across the major indices, current spot rates are running roughly 50% below where they were a year ago.
Industry experts noted the published spot rates don’t tell the full story, because carriers are still pushing additional discounts through bullet or voyage-specific pricing. In some cases, these rates are several hundred dollars below the posted spot or freight-all-kinds levels, with offers around $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 per FEU to the East Coast widely available. The forwarder emphasized that these bullet rates are what’s actually pulling cargo into the market.
That dynamic suggests importers could carry meaningful leverage into annual service contract negotiations, which are already underway and are expected to intensify in early March.
At the same time, carriers are leaning harder on blank sailings as another sign of soft demand. Data from eeSea shows carriers plan to blank 206,835 TEUs of capacity in February on the Asia–to–U.S. West Coast trade, up from 107,318 TEUs in January. On the Asia–to–East and Gulf Coast routes, February blanks are at 96,881 TEUs so far, up from 77,339 TEUs in January. Sand said carriers are blanking extensively in the weeks beginning February 23rd and March 2nd, a typical response to reduced exports from China during the Lunar New Year holiday period.
Retail volume expectations are also reinforcing the weaker outlook. Global Port Tracker, published by the National Retail Federation, forecasts that U.S. imports in February will decline 4.6% year over year, followed by a sharper 12.6% drop in March and an 8.1% decline in April.
Consumer sentiment is adding to the pressure. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, well below expectations and the lowest level since May 2014. Dana Peterson, the organization’s chief economist, said confidence collapsed in January as concerns grew about both current conditions and future expectations.
