December 18th, 2025 – Ocean container carriers continue to face challenges on the trans-Pacific as the market moves through the slow shipping season and into New Year contract negotiations. Despite capacity reductions and a growing number of blank sailings, carriers have yet to successfully realign supply with demand.
Recent data from Freightos shows mixed rate movement on the Asia–U.S. trade lane. West Coast rates declined 6% following an early-month general rate increase, dropping to $1,963 per forty-foot equivalent unit. East Coast rates moved in the opposite direction, rising 8% to $3,150 per FEU, though they remain 15% lower than a month ago.
Even with this uneven performance, carriers have managed to keep rates above October’s lows, when prices dipped to roughly $1,400 per FEU to the West Coast and $3,000 per FEU to the East Coast. Short-lived rate increases between declines have helped prevent a return to those levels.
General rate increases remain a careful balancing act. When GRIs fail to hold, some shippers shift near-term volumes to the spot market. Currently, about 60% of containerized cargo moves under long-term contracts, while 40% moves at spot rates, though that split can shift quickly when capacity tightens.
At the same time, capacity pressure continues to build as carriers introduce new vessels into a soft demand environment. Weak fourth-quarter demand combined with fleet growth is weighing on rate stability. As a result, analysts expect mid-month GRIs to struggle, with more meaningful rate improvement likely closer to Lunar New Year, when shippers typically rush to move shipments ahead of factory shutdowns in China.
Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is also clouding demand forecasts. Some U.S. manufacturers are reportedly pausing imports in anticipation of a Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariffs imposed under President Trump. A decision is not expected until January, and while there is speculation that alternative measures could be pursued, some economists suggest the ruling could offer political flexibility amid rising cost-of-living pressures.
Conditions on the Asia–Europe lanes appear more stable. Rates there have largely held recent GRI gains despite ongoing overcapacity. The SONAR Ocean TEU Volume Index shows gradual improvement in volumes on the China–Rotterdam route since mid-October.
Asia–Mediterranean rates were unchanged last week at $3,342 per FEU after rising 15% earlier in the month, marking the fourth successful GRI since mid-October. Asia–North Europe rates also remained steady at $2,449 per FEU, well above their mid-October low of around $1,700 per FEU.
Over the past two months, carriers have supported rates through capacity reductions even as demand softened. More recently, forwarders are reporting an uptick in bookings as some shippers begin placing orders earlier than usual ahead of Lunar New Year. Similar trends were seen in 2023 and 2024, partly driven by longer transit times linked to Red Sea diversions.
Looking ahead, December demand is expected to improve year over year as shippers build inventories and carriers continue to navigate ongoing geopolitical risks in the Red Sea region.
