September 18th, 2025 – Container lines managed to halt a month-long slide in eastbound trans-Pacific spot rates earlier this month, but forecasted volume declines and only modest blanking announcements are now testing the stability of that short-lived rebound.
The September 1st general rate increase (GRI), combined with a series of blank sailings, provided carriers with a temporary boost in spot rates. Forwarders report that the gains have already evaporated, with rates returning to pre-GRI levels.
Industry data reflects that shift. Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast stood at $2,500 per FEU as of Monday, up $200 week over week, while East Coast rates reached $3,600 per FEU, up $300, according to Platts, a unit of S&P Global. Carriers had also leveraged a pre–Golden Week bump in bookings out of Asia to push through increases of several hundred dollars, though much of the rate support stemmed from blank sailings.
Consultants note that carriers were particularly motivated to keep spot rates from slipping below long-term contract levels negotiated for the 2025–26 service year, after August declines brought the two close together. A major carrier executive acknowledged that while U.S. import volumes ahead of Golden Week were weaker than usual, lines have succeeded in holding spot and FAK levels above the lows of August. Rates to the West Coast, for example, had improved from $1,500–$1,600 in August to $1,800–$1,900, though they are once again softening to around $1,700–$1,800 per FEU this week. East Coast levels have similarly slipped back toward $2,700 per FEU.
Capacity management remains the central tool for carriers. According to eeSea, 10% of capacity to the West Coast was blanked in September, with 9.65% already announced for October. On the East Coast, 12.8% of sailings were canceled in September, with nearly 20% scheduled for October. At the same time, carriers are actively discounting with bullet or voyage-specific rates that undercut listed prices by $200–$300 per FEU in an effort to keep ships full.
The strategy underscores the delicate balancing act: while blank sailings and temporary GRIs can provide brief upward pressure, the absence of strong demand and lack of cargo backlogs in Asia are leaving carriers with little choice but to lean on tactical rate adjustments to keep the floor from collapsing.
