February 19th, 2026 – U.S. trucking executives are growing more optimistic about the freight economy, encouraged by tightening capacity and firmer rates that could finally signal the end of the prolonged freight recession.
That optimism is supported by spot market data. Dry-van spot rates tracked by DAT Freight and Analytics remain elevated compared with a year ago, even after January’s disruptive winter weather eased. Excluding fuel, the average rate on DAT’s top 50 U.S. lanes has hovered near $2.30 per mile this month—roughly 18% to 20% higher than the same period last year.
Industry leaders describe the current market as more balanced between carriers and shippers than it has been in recent years. Unlike January 2025, when a comparable snowstorm had virtually no impact on spot rates, this year’s winter storms and frigid temperatures triggered noticeable pricing strength. With inflation appearing under control and trucking capacity continuing to exit the market, executives believe supply and demand are moving into a healthier alignment for carriers. Some characterize the moment as a “Goldilocks” period—conditions that are neither too hot nor too cold, but potentially just right to support a recovery in freight demand that has remained subdued.
As the snow and ice from late January’s widespread storm melts and sidelined trucks return to service, the industry is closely watching whether pricing strength will hold. Many executives say the next several weeks will be critical in determining whether the market is experiencing a temporary weather-related bump or the early stages of a sustained recovery. That distinction will be key as carriers seek contract rate increases from shippers in upcoming bid cycles.
While winter disruptions have created momentum, trucking companies acknowledge that shippers remain resistant to higher costs. Recent customer meetings suggest that few are eager to voluntarily accept rate increases. Even so, if spot market resilience continues beyond the storm recovery period, carriers believe this year could unfold differently from the past few years of persistent rate pressure.
Broader indicators also suggest that the shift may extend beyond weather effects. The Cass Freight Index shows the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index—largely composed of contract rates—rose 3.2% year over year in January. Analysts note that more shippers are initiating one-year bids, signaling potential movement in the freight cycle rather than a short-term spike.
That increase aligns with what some carriers are reporting in their own contract renewals. Werner Enterprises, for example, is seeing low- to mid-single-digit gains as a starting point in pricing discussions and reports early success in securing those renewals.
Executives caution that the recovery remains largely supply-driven. Capacity reductions have been accelerated by federal enforcement efforts targeting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses and English language proficiency requirements, contributing to what some industry analysts describe as a necessary removal of excess capacity in the market. However, early signs of renewed demand, when combined with tighter supply, are fueling a more optimistic outlook among trucking leaders.
After three difficult years, the industry may be approaching a turning point—but the durability of current rate strength over the coming weeks will determine whether this momentum marks the true beginning of a freight recovery.
