May 14th, 2026 – The traditional peak shipping season in the United States may barely register this year, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. Weak consumer confidence, combined with retailer hesitation to aggressively restock inventories amid an uncertain economic climate, is expected to suppress import volumes throughout the second half of the year.
A major factor driving the uncertainty is the ongoing conflict with Iran, now stretched into its third month. The NRF noted that inflationary pressures, declining consumer sentiment, and geopolitical instability are all contributing to weaker import activity and cautious spending behavior among retailers.
Although imports in May and June are projected to slightly exceed last year’s levels, analysts cautioned that the comparison is misleading. Imports during the same months in 2025 dropped sharply after the Trump administration imposed broad tariffs in April of that year, making current gains appear stronger than they actually are.
The real picture is expected to emerge during the summer months. NRF forecasts show July imports reaching 2.2 million TEUs, representing a decline of nearly 8% year over year. August volumes are projected at 2.19 million TEUs, down 5.5%, while September imports are expected to fall 1.3% below last year’s levels at 2.08 million TEUs. The September decline is particularly notable because the month traditionally represents the height of the annual peak shipping season, when retailers typically build inventories for holiday demand.
Hackett Associates also pointed to weakening forward demand and stalled restocking efforts as additional warning signs for the supply chain sector. Industry executives say the traditional August-to-October surge in imports has largely disappeared over the past two years due to tariff disruptions and broader economic instability.
Despite the weak outlook, there are some indications of improving booking demand. An index tracking China import ordering activity, based on data from maritime intelligence provider Vizion, reached its highest point of 2026 during the week ending April 23rd after moving into positive territory earlier in the month.
Consumer sentiment, however, continues to deteriorate. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 48.2 in April, down from 49.8 in March. Survey participants frequently cited rising gasoline prices and tariffs as major financial concerns. Continued instability in the Middle East and elevated energy costs are also weighing heavily on household confidence.
Retail sales data reflected similar pressures. U.S. retail sales in March rose 1.7% month over month to $752.1 billion, but much of the increase was driven by higher fuel prices rather than broader consumer purchasing activity tied to imported retail goods.
At the same time, ocean carriers are continuing to expand eastbound trans-Pacific capacity. According to eeSea, carriers are deploying nearly 2 million TEUs in May, 2.13 million TEUs in June, and just under 2.2 million TEUs in July, all higher than the same period last year. Blank sailings are also declining significantly, suggesting carriers are maintaining more scheduled services despite softer demand forecasts.
The Global Port Tracker report monitors import activity across 13 major U.S. ports, including Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.
