June 18th, 2026 – Large and midsize U.S. retailers are facing a sharp increase in ocean freight costs this summer, despite securing relatively favorable annual service contract rates earlier this year. Escalating bunker fuel prices and substantial peak season surcharges (PSSs) are expected to push transportation expenses significantly higher than originally anticipated.
Most retailers negotiated 2026–27 service contract rates between $1,700 and $1,900 per FEU from Asia to the U.S. West Coast, with East Coast rates averaging about $1,000 higher. These agreements, which largely took effect on May 1st, were slightly below the rates retailers paid during the previous contract year.
However, rising global oil prices tied to ongoing conflict in the Middle East are driving substantial increases in bunker adjustment factors (BAFs). Contracts that reset quarterly are expected to see BAF increases of approximately $300 to $400 per FEU beginning July 1st, while importers operating under monthly contract adjustments are already seeing higher fuel costs.
At the same time, ocean carriers are capitalizing on exceptionally strong trans-Pacific demand by imposing peak season surcharges that are reaching $2,000 per FEU. Many retailers have accelerated imports of fall and holiday merchandise in an effort to avoid potential tariff increases and further fuel cost escalation. As a result, total transportation costs on some contract shipments could climb to roughly $4,000 per FEU once surcharges and fuel adjustments are added.
Strong Import Demand Fuels Carrier Pricing Power
Import volumes from Asia surged in May, reaching 1.68 million TEUs. According to PIERS data from S&P Global, this represented a 13% increase from April, nearly 20% growth compared to the previous year, and the highest monthly volume recorded since August 2025.
The strong demand environment has also supported a steady rise in spot market rates. By mid-June, spot rates from North Asia to the U.S. West Coast had climbed to approximately $5,500 per FEU, while East Coast rates reached around $6,500 per FEU. Retailers and importers moving cargo outside of contract allocations are increasingly exposed to these elevated market rates.
Carriers have reinforced the upward trend through frequent general rate increases (GRIs), implementing adjustments roughly twice per month throughout the spring. Additional GRIs have already been filed with the Federal Maritime Commission for July 1st, and market participants expect at least a portion of those increases to remain in effect.
Demand Forecasts Remain Strong Through Summer
Despite broader economic concerns and weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP growth during the first quarter, customer forecasts have consistently pointed to stronger import demand than many analysts anticipated. Shippers across multiple industries signaled early that May and June volumes would exceed April levels, helping carriers maintain pricing momentum.
With demand expected to remain elevated through at least July, industry observers anticipate further rate pressure. Additional general rate increases and peak season surcharges remain likely as carriers seek to maximize returns during a period of constrained capacity and robust cargo volumes.
While short-term demand forecasts generally remain reliable, projecting market conditions further into the traditional peak shipping season of August through October becomes increasingly challenging. Forecast accuracy tends to decline beyond 30 days, making longer-term planning more difficult for both carriers and importers.
Nevertheless, many industry participants believe frontloading activity will continue through July and potentially into August as retailers work to secure inventory ahead of the holiday season.
Retail Forecasts Point to an Early Peak Season
The National Retail Federation has raised its forecast for June import volumes, reinforcing the view that peak season shipping arrived earlier than usual in 2026. However, the organization expects the current surge to soften later in the summer and has reduced its projections for imports arriving during late summer and early fall.
Additional indicators support the view that import demand remains elevated. Data from maritime intelligence provider Vizion showed increased booking activity for Chinese imports, with its booking demand index reaching the highest level of the year during the week ending May 11th.
Why This Year May Differ From Last Summer
Although last summer also saw a rapid increase in imports and freight rates, industry experts caution against assuming a similar pattern will unfold in 2026.
In 2025, the demand surge was largely concentrated in the U.S. market. Carriers were able to redirect vessels from other trade lanes into the trans-Pacific, quickly increasing capacity and helping freight rates retreat after roughly two months.
This year presents a different challenge. Strong demand is not limited to the trans-Pacific; rates and cargo volumes are also rising on Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean, and South American trade routes. Because these markets are competing for the same vessels and equipment, carriers have fewer opportunities to redeploy capacity into the trans-Pacific.
As a result, capacity constraints could persist for longer periods, increasing the likelihood that elevated freight rates remain in place well beyond the initial summer surge. For importers, this creates the potential for higher transportation costs lasting deeper into the second half of the year.
