June 11th, 2026 – U.S. retailers have raised their forecast for June imports, reinforcing the view that the traditional peak shipping season has arrived earlier than usual in 2026. Importers are accelerating shipments of fall and holiday merchandise in an effort to get ahead of impending tariff increases and the possibility of higher fuel costs.
While import activity is currently surging, industry analysts expect the momentum to be temporary. According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report published by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import volumes are likely to remain elevated through July before softening later in the summer and into early fall. The report notes that consumer uncertainty and inflationary pressures are expected to weigh on demand, leading to reduced import activity in the months ahead.
The June import forecast has been revised upward to 2.25 million TEUs, compared with the previous estimate of 2.13 million TEUs. This would represent a 14.3% increase compared with June 2025. However, the year-over-year growth figure is influenced by unusually weak import volumes last spring, when tariffs introduced by the Trump administration caused a sharp decline in shipments.
Following the June increase, import forecasts for the remainder of the summer have been lowered. July imports are now projected at 2.19 million TEUs, slightly below last month’s forecast and 8.4% lower than the same month last year. August volumes are expected to reach 2.12 million TEUs, down from the previous estimate of 2.19 million TEUs and 8.6% below August 2025 levels. September imports have also been revised downward to 2.06 million TEUs, representing a 2.2% annual decline.
For October, the GPT’s initial forecast calls for 2.08 million TEUs, essentially flat compared with the prior year.
A major factor driving the current import rush is the scheduled expiration of the 10% global tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the U.S. Trade Act. Those tariffs are set to expire on July 24th and are expected to be replaced by duties ranging from 10% to 12.5%. Retailers are also seeking to avoid additional costs that could result from rising fuel prices later in the year.
The NRF expects June’s year-over-year growth to be partially driven by retailers advancing shipments before those higher costs take effect. Despite the near-term increase, the organization continues to project weaker import demand overall as geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran, contribute to inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty.
Market data supports the view that import demand remains strong in the short term. An index compiled by maritime intelligence provider Vizion shows booking activity for Chinese imports to the United States has been climbing steadily. The index reached a 2026 high of 117 during the week ending May 11th, the latest data available.
The increase in cargo demand has also pushed trans-Pacific container freight rates to their highest levels of the year. According to Platts, rates from North Asia to the U.S. West Coast have climbed to approximately $5,000 per FEU, an increase of nearly 80% over the past month. East Coast rates have risen to about $6,100 per FEU, up nearly 60% during the same period.
Freight forwarders also report that ocean carriers have filed for an additional general rate increase scheduled to take effect on June 15, creating the potential for further upward pressure on shipping costs.
The Global Port Tracker monitors import activity across 13 major U.S. ports, including Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.
