November 13th, 2025 – U.S. retailers are showing caution this season, scaling back on post-winter holiday restocking even as they prepare for what is expected to be a strong year-end shopping surge. Import levels are projected to stay below two million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) per month through March, signaling a conservative approach to inventory management.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), import volumes are expected to see double-digit declines for the remainder of the year, with no meaningful recovery in early 2026. By March, volumes could dip to 1.79 million TEUs, marking a steady contraction following months of earlier frontloading.
This sharp slowdown stems largely from retailers pulling cargo forward earlier in the year to avoid potential tariff increases. Although U.S. container volumes rose 3.7% year over year in the first half of 2025, they are now projected to finish the year 2.3% below 2024 levels. The unpredictable shifts in trade policy under the Trump administration have made forecasting particularly difficult, leading analysts to expect a modest decline in imports this year and an even steeper drop in early 2026.
Mixed Economic Signals Keep Inventories Lean
The GPT anticipates significant short-term declines, with imports in November and December expected to fall 14.4% and 19.9%, respectively, from the same months in 2024. These figures appear especially weak when compared to last year’s frontloading surge, driven in part by labor unrest and a brief port strike along the East and Gulf coasts.
Despite the pullback in imports, overall retail performance remains healthy. U.S. retail sales are forecast to surpass $1 trillion this year, growing about 3% to 4% over 2024. Yet consumer sentiment has softened, as reflected in the University of Michigan’s November index, which showed increased pessimism amid concerns about a prolonged government shutdown.
In response to these mixed economic indicators and shifting tariff pressures, retailers are opting to keep their shelves stocked conservatively. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports inventory-to-sales ratios hovering between 1.28 and 1.32—an indication that retailers have enough goods to meet demand without overcommitting. This lean inventory strategy is expected to persist into 2026, when the GPT forecasts imports slipping to 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million TEUs in February.
Limited Boost from Trade Developments
While the recently announced U.S.-China trade agreement prompted a brief surge in import activity, the effect was limited. A temporary one-year reduction in the so-called “fentanyl tax” cut tariffs on Chinese imports by half, but the rate still stands at roughly 47%, well above the duties applied to other Asian sourcing hubs. As a result, many retailers continue to diversify their supply chains while keeping overall import volumes restrained.
The GPT tracks activity across major U.S. gateways—including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. Collectively, these ports are now handling lower throughput as retailers focus on cautious, cost-sensitive inventory planning heading into 2026.
