September 25th, 2025 – The proposed merger of Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) would create the first true transcontinental rail operator in the United States, potentially reshaping trade flows and intensifying competition between U.S. West Coast ports and the Port of Vancouver for Midwest markets. Over the past decade, the West Coast has ceded market share to East and Gulf coast gateways and Canadian ports, but a single cross-country operator could tip the balance back toward Los Angeles, Long Beach, and their peers.
By combining networks and eliminating interchange delays of 24 to 48 hours in Chicago and other hubs, a merged UP-NS would make West Coast routings to markets east of Chicago more cost-feasible. Access to Detroit, Indiana, and other Midwest centers—currently reached from the West Coast via Canadian National’s link to Vancouver—would be possible without relying on Canadian carriers. Former BNSF executive Vann Cunningham notes that watershed markets in the Ohio Valley and areas straddling the Mississippi could see faster, cheaper service than all-water options through the Panama Canal.
Port stakeholders are watching closely. Los Angeles port director Gene Seroka said the merger could give his gateway direct access to the nation’s most populous third, long fragmented by multiple rail handoffs. Alameda Corridor CEO Michael Leue added that while single-line efficiency could drive more cargo through the corridor, the priority must remain converting truckload freight to rail, not just optimizing long-haul intermodal.
Recent cargo flows underscore what’s at stake. In the first eight months of 2024 and 2025, about 59% of U.S. imports from Asia moved through the West Coast, up from a decade-low 56% in 2023 but still well below the 65% share of 2015. Gains have been driven by East and Gulf Coast labor disruptions, tariff-related front-loading, and improved peak-season handling on the West Coast thanks to better forecasting and infrastructure upgrades. But sustaining that momentum depends on railroads’ ability to provide adequate equipment and avoid congestion at terminals.
For Vancouver and Canadian National, a merged UP-NS could be a competitive challenge, though success would depend on whether the U.S. carriers aggressively pursue international intermodal volumes. Analysts remain divided. Paul Tonsager, a former CN and Maersk executive, argues that transcontinental operations could just as easily encourage more East Coast routings, given the pricing dynamics. With trucking costs from East Coast ports to Midwest markets still far below cross-country rail, the merged entity would need to unlock significant savings and be willing to share them with shippers—something railroads historically have been reluctant to do.
Even if federal regulators approve the deal, meaningful results would take years. Integration of networks and IT systems could take three years or more, and existing multi-year contracts limit the immediate shift of volumes. Competing Class I railroads are already launching joint services to counter the potential of a unified UP-NS, though these partnerships can’t replicate the efficiency of a single operator. Whether this merger delivers a West Coast windfall, or simply redistributes market share across North America, will hinge on how effectively the new entity balances costs, service, and its appetite for intermodal business.
