May 28th, 2026 – After a weak start to the year, the trans-Atlantic westbound trade experienced a rebound in demand, but momentum has started to ease as summer approaches. Spot rates surged earlier in the second quarter but have largely plateaued over the past two weeks, signaling a market that may be stabilizing after a rapid recovery phase.
The overall supply-and-demand balance remains difficult to interpret. Ocean carriers do not appear to be preparing for a downturn based on their June deployment schedules. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea platform shows planned capacity on the North Europe to U.S. East Coast westbound route reaching 327,860 TEUs in June, approximately 10,000 TEUs higher than in May.
At the same time, U.S. import data tells a different story. PIERS data from S&P Global indicates April imports on the trade lane fell 11% year over year to 185,960 TEUs, following a 2.8% decline in March. Despite softer import volumes, spot freight rates climbed sharply through April and early May before leveling off.
Rate indices show that North Europe to U.S. East Coast spot prices have remained around $2,100 per FEU since early May, according to Platts data. Although rates have stopped rising, they remain roughly 60% higher than levels recorded in late March. Drewry’s World Container Index similarly placed rates at $2,453 per FEU this week, reflecting a 65% increase over the same period.
Industry participants remain divided over the outlook for June demand. Hapag-Lloyd maintains a relatively optimistic stance heading into the summer shipping season, citing healthy demand across multiple sectors with the exception of forestry products. The carrier also noted that rate recovery was necessary after a prolonged decline stretching back to May of last year. Strong cargo growth during March and April supported the rebound, although conditions became softer in the second half of May.
Other analysts see the market cooling. Drewry Supply Chain Advisors expects spot rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast to decline in June, arguing that the latest increases are likely nearing an end. June is traditionally not a particularly strong month for trans-Atlantic cargo volumes, and current demand patterns do not indicate significant strength on the route.
Xeneta analysts also believe the market has weakened. Earlier in the year, carriers reduced capacity and successfully created tighter market conditions, helping drive rates upward. However, much of that capacity has since returned, while demand growth has failed to keep pace, leaving the market less constrained than it appeared several months ago.
Forwarders are beginning to observe the same trend operationally. One ocean freight executive at a global forwarding company said vessels are becoming less full again, suggesting a quieter summer ahead after unusually strong shipping activity during recent months. According to the executive, some customers accelerated shipments because of uncertainty surrounding future U.S. political and monetary policy decisions, while others pointed to improving consumer demand in the U.S. market. Some shippers even attributed stronger cargo flows to anticipated demand tied to the upcoming soccer World Cup.
The sharp rise in spot rates during April and May was also influenced by supply-side factors beyond cargo demand. Analysts noted that capacity reductions by the Ocean Alliance helped tighten the market, while higher bunker fuel costs added upward pressure to freight pricing.
Fuel prices remain elevated on both sides of the Atlantic. Rotterdam very low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) is currently trading around $725 per metric ton, nearly 50% higher than levels seen before conflict erupted in the Middle East earlier this year. In New York, VLSFO prices recently reached a record high of $862 per metric ton before easing to approximately $794 per metric ton, still roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels.
As the market moves into summer, the trans-Atlantic trade lane appears to be shifting from rapid rate recovery toward a more balanced and potentially softer environment, with carriers and shippers closely watching whether demand can sustain the higher pricing levels established during the spring rebound.
