June 19th, 2025 – Import volumes through the Port of Los Angeles fell in May, potentially signaling broader trade disruptions on the horizon if a new U.S.-China agreement isn’t reached. Although the current tariff pause has helped sustain some momentum in U.S.-bound shipments, volumes dipped compared to last year.
Total throughput at the nation’s busiest container port reached 717,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 5% from May 2024. The drop ended a 10-month streak of year-over-year growth. Imports saw the sharpest decline, falling 9% compared to last year and plunging 19% from April. That decline sharply contrasted with early forecasts, which had anticipated significantly higher inbound volumes before new tariff announcements.
Inbound container traffic totaled 356,020 TEUs – roughly 25% below what port officials had projected prior to the tariff developments. Exports also slipped, down 5% year-over-year to 120,000 units, marking the sixth straight monthly decline.
Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China, including recent talks in London, offer some hope. However, tariffs remain elevated, with the U.S. maintaining a 55% rate on many Chinese imports and China’s average retaliatory tariffs sitting near 10%. These trade frictions are contributing to uncertainty across supply chains and logistics planning.
Despite the volatility, shippers have been taking advantage of the current pause. Data [from Freightwaves SONAR] indicates that through mid-June, loaded container volumes from Chinese ports to the U.S. remained even with the same period last year.
Domestically, softer consumer demand is compounding the impact. The National Retail Federation reported a year-over-year decline in U.S. retail sales in May, further reducing demand for imports.
Economic analysis presented during the Port of Los Angeles briefing highlighted the broader financial burden tariffs are placing on American households. According to Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at Yale University’s Budget Lab, tariffs introduced in 2025 have raised the U.S. average effective tariff rate by 12 percentage points. This jump has translated into roughly a 1.5% rise in prices for consumers, cutting annual purchasing power by about $2,500 per household in 2024 dollars. Lower-income families are being hit hardest, facing a 2.5% effective price increase compared to just 1% for higher earners.
Tedeschi noted that the inflationary effects of tariffs are not immediate. Drawing on past examples, such as the 2018 tariffs on washing machines, he explained that it typically takes months for such costs to appear in consumer price data. Current inventory levels and policy uncertainty are likely to delay – but not prevent – their impact.
Looking ahead, there is cautious optimism. The National Retail Federation’s latest port tracker forecasts import declines through August, but operational data suggests the Port of Los Angeles remains well-positioned. Port officials emphasized strong velocity metrics, indicating that despite lower volumes, the facility is prepared to efficiently handle variable flows.
Trans-Border will continue to monitor the situation and advise customers accordingly. Should you have any questions, send us an email or give us a call at 518-785-6000.
